June Import Market Share for Sheet and Plate Products

Plate products in June saw an overall increase in shipments as apparent supply rose 2.9%. Domestic deliveries of plate products rose fractionally by 0.1%, while imports increased by 16.3% during the month. Overall, the rise in apparent supply of plate products month on month was still the second highest since August 2019.

Domestic sheet shipments in June totaled 4.421 million tons, the second highest total since March 2020. Imports of sheet products in June totaled 854,829 tons, up from 808,064 tons the month prior and the highest mark since October 2018 when imports totaled 865,191 tons.

The import share of hot rolled coil (HRC) rose to 15.5% in June, as imports reached their highest total since July 2016. HRC imports totaled 333,749 tons, up 50.2% month on month and nearly tripling totals from last August. Cold rolled coil (CRC) imports also rose to their highest totals since May 2018, 159,526 tons or 29.4% above May. CRC import market share reached 16.7% in June, up from 13.0% the month prior.

The import market share for plates in coil edged down slightly in June despite an increase of 13.4% in total imports. The rise in imports was offset by a 22.7% increase in domestic shipments of plates in coil. Imports totaled 114,915 tons while domestic shipments were 137,289. Overall, apparent supply was up 18.3% in June when compared to the month prior.

The table below displays total supply to the market in three months and 12 months through June 2021 for sheet and plate products and six subcategories. Supply to the market is the total of domestic mill shipments plus imports. It shows imports on the same three- and 12-month basis and then calculates import market share for the two time periods for six products. Finally, it subtracts the 12-month share from the three-month share and color codes the result green or red according to gains or losses. If the result of the subtraction is positive, it means that import share is increasing, and the code is red.

The big picture is that imports’ share of sheet and plate continues to rise month after month, following what many predict could be a big second half jump in total imports. This could provide some much-needed supply-side relief to buyers who have seen lead times extend out to 10-plus weeks and prices soar to new historic highs on a weekly basis. Hot rolled and cold rolled sheet and strip have seen a trend shift together with plate products, illustrating how import competition is rising versus domestic products in three months compared to 12 months. Most notable of those subcategories are plates in coil (9.1%) and hot rolled coil (3.1%) in three months compared to 12 months through June 2021.

The historical import market share of plate and sheet products and the import market share of the four major sheet products are show side-by-side in Figure 1. The import market share of individual plate products as well as a breakdown of the market share for plates in coil are displayed together in Figure 2. The import share of plate had been decreasing erratically over the past six years, but has trended up this year and is back to pre-pandemic levels, hovering around 20.0%. Sheet product imports’ share had also trended down over the past several years but has gained ground since the beginning of the year despite a steady rise in domestic shipments. The import market share of plates in coil is now nearly split with domestic shipments and holding strong since the beginning of the year.

By David Schollaert, David@SteelMarketUpdate.com