International Steel Mills

CRU: China’s Steel Demand and Output to Tail Off in 2020

December 14, 2019

Steel consumption in China is expected to ease back to 881 Mt next year, down from the record 886 Mt anticipated this year, according to forecasts by China’s Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute.

Crude steel production is projected to mirror those figures by falling to 981 Mt in 2020 from a record 988 Mt this year.

“The unexpected steel consumption growth in 2019 is mainly due to an increase in real estate and infrastructure investments, while downstream industries such as machinery, energy, and home appliances also contributed to the growth under the background of a stable growing domestic economy,” reported the China Daily newspaper quoted Li Xinchuang, president of the government research body.

In detail, the institute predicts 2020 steel consumption in:

• Construction to be 475 Mt in 2020, down from the 478 Mt expected this year;

• Automobile to be 48.2 Mt, down from 50.0 Mt;

• Shipbuilding to be 10.0 Mt, down from 11.3 Mt;

• Machinery to be 142 Mt, unchanged;

• Home appliances to be 14.0 Mt, up from 13.5 Mt; and

• Energy to be 34.5 Mt, up from 34.0 Mt.

The institute also forecast China’s iron ore demand will be 1.225 bnt in 2020, down from 1.264 bnt this year with pig iron production falling to 775 Mt from 800 Mt.

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