Economy
Chicago Business Barometer Shows Weakness Across the Board
Written by Sandy Williams
July 31, 2019
The Chicago Business Barometer recorded a second month in contraction, falling to 44.4 in July from 49.7 in June and the weakest third-quarter start since 2009.
Production was at a 10-year low, falling 22 percent on the month. Further contraction of new orders indicated subdued demand resulting in trimming of workforce. The employment indicator was at its lowest level since October 2009.
Inventories increased along with longer lead times.
“Sentiment faded further with firms facing weakness across the board. Global risks, trade tensions, slowdown in demand and somber growth expectations, all jeopardize business conditions. Firms are not panicking yet, but the latest report isn’t adding to the cheer. The above risks lend weight to a monetary easing approach by the Fed, albeit a gradual one,” said Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI.
This month’s special question asked firms about their views on the U.S. economy’s growth in the second half of the year. Two in five firms expected the economy to see slower growth than currently, with some holding tariffs responsible for the slowdown. The majority, at 46 percent, did not expect any change, while only 14 percent expected the economy pick up.
Below is a graph showing the history of the Chicago Business Barometer. You will need to view the graph on our website to use its interactive features; you can do so by clicking here. If you need assistance logging in to or navigating the website, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Sandy Williams
Read more from Sandy WilliamsLatest in Economy
Architecture billings flat in October after months of contraction
Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.
Trump taps Lutnick to be Commerce Secretary
President-elect Donald Trump has named Wall Street veteran Howard Lutnick as the new US Secretary of Commerce.
New York state manufacturing activity ramps up to multi-year high
New York state’s manufacturing sector saw substantial recovery in November, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election
Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.
ISM: Manufacturing index fell in Oct to lowest point of ’24
Domestic manufacturing contracted for the seventh straight month in October, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This marks the 23rd time in the last 24 months that it has been in contraction.