SIMA: Steel Import License Data for April

This early look at April’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, longs and tubulars, with a total of 18 subsectors, and we now publish an import market share analysis for the same 18 steel product groups. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. We use three-month moving averages rather than single-month results to smooth out the variability.

Total rolled products imports in the nine months August 2018 through April 2019 have been consistent, ranging from 1.78 million to 1.96 million tons on a 3MMA basis. In April, the 3MMA was 1.78 million tons, therefore at the very bottom of the range. Year over year on a 3MMA basis, sheet products were down by 29.2 percent, plate products were down by 20.5 percent, long products were down by 25.6 percent, and tubulars were down by 18.4 percent. In the 12 months of 2018, total rolled product imports were down by 9.9 percent from 2017, but were almost exactly the same as in 2016. Imports of flat rolled, tubulars and longs all peaked in May last year. Since then total flat rolled (sheet and plate) has consistently declined, which may be tariff driven. This is not so clear for longs and tubulars where the decline since May has been less consistent.

Figure 1 shows the tonnage of total rolled steel and semi-finished imports through April on a 3MMA basis. Total rolled product volume has been on an erratically downward trend since early 2015. Imports of semi-finished have been very erratic since last August with a high of 1.26 million tons in October to a low of 207,000 tons in December. The April volume was 846,000 tons, up from 397,000 in March. This is why we use a 3MMA calculation in our analyses. On this basis since January last year, the range has been 492,000 to 883,000 tons with April central at 641,000 tons. Evidently, Section 232 has had no effect on semi-finished products.

Figure 2 summarizes the import volume of flat rolled, tubular and long products since 2004 on a 3MMA basis. All three have been trending down, but tubulars and longs have experienced an increase since December.

There are three tables in this report. In each of them we show the 3MMA of the tonnage in April 2019 and April 2018 with the year-over-year change. We then calculate the percentage change in volume in the most recent three months with the previous three months. This month we are comparing February through April with November through January (3M/3M). The next column to the right shows the year-over-year change as a percentage. Declines are color coded green and increases are coded red. Finally, in the far-right column, we subtract the 12-month change from the three-month change. This is a way of describing the magnitude of the recent trend as a percentage. It is not unusual for the color code of the trend to be the opposite of the two time frame analyses.

Table 1 describes the imports of all major sectors of the sheet and plate markets. In the flat rolled sectors shown in Table 1, every product volume except tin plate was down year over year and every product had a trend of increasing imports when comparing Y/Y with 3M/3M. The import volume of each of the big three sheet products, hot rolled, cold rolled and HDG, was down by over 29 percent year over year. CTL plate has down by 13.0 percent and coiled plate was down by 23.6 percent year over year. Figures 3 and 4 show the history of sheet and plate product imports since April 2004.

Table 2 shows the same analysis for long products where the year-over year volume was down by 25.6 percent in total. All products except wire rod were down by over 25 percent. Heavy structurals and light shapes were both down by over 44 percent.

Figure 5 shows the history of long product imports.

Table 3 shows that for tubular products in total the volume was down by 18.4 percent year-over-year with standard pipe down the most. Line pipe had a 4.9 percent increase. Figure 6 shows the history of tubular imports since 2004.

Explanation: SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using license data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by product, by district of entry and by source nation, which is available in the premium member section of our website. The early look is based on three-month moving averages using the latest license data, either the preliminary or final data for the previous month and final data for earlier months. We recognize that the license data is subject to revisions but believe that by combining it with earlier months in this way gives a reasonably accurate assessment of volume trends by product as early as possible. The main issue with the license data is that the month in which the tonnage arrives is not always the same month in which the license was recorded. In 2014, we conducted a 12-month analysis to evaluate the accuracy of the license data compared to final receipts. This analysis showed that the licensed tonnage of all carbon and low alloy products was 2.3 percent less than actual receipts, close enough to confidently include license data in this current update. The discrepancy declined continuously during the 12-month evaluation as a longer period was considered.

Statement from the Department of Commerce: The Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) system of the Department of Commerce collects and publishes data of steel mill product imports. By design, this information gives stakeholders valuable information on steel trade with the United States. This is achieved through two tools: the steel licensing program and the steel import monitor. All steel mill imports into the United States require a license issued by the SIMA office. The SIMA Licensing System is an online system for importers to register, apply for and receive licenses in a timely manner. In addition to managing the licensing system, SIMA publishes near-real-time aggregate data on steel mill imports into the United States. These data incorporate information collected from steel license applications and publicly released Census data. The data are displayed in tables and graphs for users to analyze. Additionally, SIMA provides data on U.S. steel mill exports, as well as imports and exports of select downstream steel products.