SMU Data and Models

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: A Pessimistic Turn

April 18, 2019

Data in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index took a decidedly pessimistic turn this week. Current Sentiment hit its lowest reading since October 2016.

The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as three to six months into the future (Future Index). Results are posted as both single data points and as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the trend. Sentiment among industry executives remains in the optimistic half of the scale, but has been generally on the decline since peaking at +78 in January 2018.

Current Sentiment measured as a single data point registered +49 in the latest data, down from +61 two weeks ago. Measured as a 3MMA, Current Sentiment averaged 56.83, down from 58.33 in early April.

Future Sentiment

Respondents were asked to assess their chances for success in three to six months. Measured as a single data point, Future Sentiment registered +56, down 9 points from the +65 reading in the last poll. Measured as a 3MMA, the Future Index averaged 60.67, down from 61.17 in SMU’s April 1 questionnaire. While still on the optimistic side of SMU’s scale, both measures showed notable erosion.

What Our Respondents Had to Say

“Demand is slow and pricing is weak.”

“Our hedging strategy is helping us buffer headwinds in the market.”

“The market is flat and sentiment is weak. Very tough to sell futures now. Section 232 tariffs have made imports too costly. I don’t see tariffs going away anytime soon. Bad for the consumer as they are paying a premium and struggling.”

“Weather in the Midwest was not helpful.”

“The market appears stable, but the specter of oversupply keeps many buyers from being very aggressive, and it looks like this will continue.”

“Trying to secure contractual business is about as difficult as we have ever experienced.”

“I see the situation getting worse for imports in the future with more potential trade action.”

“Order input has picked up, but pricing is very competitive.”

“Imports of finished goods are becoming a major factor.”

“There are too many uncertainties.”

About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.

Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the righthand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment. Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the lefthand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.

Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to see. Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-150 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 37 percent were manufacturers and 49 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance was made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business. Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.