SMU Data and Models
SMU Market Trends: Near Unanimity on Price Increase
Written by Tim Triplett
December 21, 2017
More than nine out of 10 respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire see steel prices heading higher in the first quarter. Seven percent say they see no clear direction for prices. Virtually no one expects prices to decline in the wake of price hike announcements by the major mills earlier this month. Whether the mills are able to collect all or part of their increases will be determined by market forces in the coming months.
Following is a sampling of steel buyers’ comments:
• “Fundamentals are all pointing toward a higher market for Q1.”
• “Prices are going up. The only question is how high and for how long?”
• “Not sure if the high for HRC base will be $700 or $750 for 2018.”
• “Raw material costs continue to slowly increase (iron ore, coking coal, zinc) and now the rise in scrap will push prices up in the first quarter.”
• “Hot rolled will lead the way—tied to scrap and not much in the way of import competition.”
Not every respondent feels positive about the price trend:
• “Knowing there have already been price increases announced, I just don’t know how they are justified. I don’t think they will hold.”
• “Mill prices are going up. Service center selling prices are not going higher.”
• “The continued threat of Section 232 and the circumvention ruling on coated products points to a very protectionist government, which will lead to a short-term price gain for the mills, but longer-term pain.”
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices slip
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices saw a slight decline this week, slipping to levels last observed in early November
SMU Survey: HR, CR and plate lead times up, coated products down
Steel mill lead times were mixed across the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Most mills still willing to talk price
The majority of steel buyers we canvassed this week continue to report that mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices stable to start 2025
Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times short and steady to start 2025
Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.