Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 22, 2017
A note that SMU adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral on Friday. I have explained 10 of the reasons why (and there are more) in the first article in tonight’s newsletter. If you would like to make comments, feel free to reach out to me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I will be working on foreign steel offers early this week as there have been a number of comments from both buyers and sellers of steel about the high prices associated with foreign right now. I will be working on trying to explain what that means and what it might mean for domestic steel prices in the months ahead. The market has been waiting for a correction of foreign steel imports, but it has not happened despite antidumping and countervailing duties. It has not happened due to the threat of Section 232 (in fact, I believe the Section 232 investigation has worked against the domestic steel mills). Logic says if foreign prices are higher than domestic, that should create an environment that favors domestic steel mills. The question is, exactly when?
Because one of the other things I have been hearing is from the OEMs who have gone out and protected themselves, buying extra inventory and/or taking advantage of their domestic contracts. Will the domestic mills be able to raise prices should there be less first-quarter demand than normal?
If you have opinions on these subjects, please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
What's going to be the next big thing in steel?
Final Thoughts
Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.
Final Thoughts
Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.
Final Thoughts
What should you keep your eye on, considering the latest geopolitical events?
Final Thoughts
Not many people in the North American steel market had direct US involvement in another Middle East conflict on their bingo card. Prices weren't expected to shoot higher unless something unexpected happened. That unexpected something has now happened. And there is talk of oil at $100 per barrel. What does that mean for steel?