SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey Results: Concerns Growing About Supply - Especially Coated Steels
Written by John Packard
March 19, 2017
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about supply (62 percent) but the percentage of those having concerns has grown to 30 percent of our respondents. We will need to watch and see if there is cause for this concern either by extending lead times, shrinking imports or rapidly improving demand.
This question prompted many of the respondents to comment:
“With Big River coming on-line and other hot mills I have no concerns on supply. However, Big River is willing to pay a premium currently for prime scrap and that is going to drive tightness in the scrap market for a while.” Manufacturing company
“Supply is there as long as you pay the price.” Trading company
“None at this time [concerns about supply] – this could change quickly.” Wholesaler
“[Yes, we have concerns about supply] especially in coated products.” Service center
“Always have concerns about the availability of secondary steel sources.” Service center
“Coated shortage possibly coming.” Manufacturing company
“Our contracts cover 2017 needs, but I have more of a concern about CR & Coated capacity for 2018 and am actively reviewing new low cost countries for steel supply with low AD/CV duty risk.” Manufacturing company
Our next SMU Flat Rolled Market Trends Analysis begins on Monday, March 20th and will conclude later in the week. Premium level members of SMU can see past results of our surveys on our website. We will publish a new Power Point presentation with this week’s results on Friday of this week.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.