Futures
Hot Rolled Futures Settle Up $28/Ton
Written by David Feldstein
January 26, 2017
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing Futures articles for Steel Market Update, Dave produces articles that our readers may find interesting under the heading “The Feldstein” on the Flack Global Markets website www.FlackGlobalMetals.com.
Note that Flack Steel has changed their name to Flack Global Metals as a way to reflect recent acquisitions that include Consolidated Metal Products and JD Steel Products. You can learn more about Flack Global Metals and their use of the futures markets by visiting their website or reading their press release here.
LME Turkish scrap futures have been tumbling in the past week. Today’s index print of $236 is down 17% in two weeks! This rout has been pressuring domestic scrap prices lower and is something to pay close attention to.
The chart on the left is the LME February Turkish scrap future while the chart on the right shows the Turkish scrap curve (orange) versus the scrap curve one week ago (green).
Paradoxically, the SGX iron ore prices reached new recent highs with the February future’s price closing at $82.46/t. The iron ore futures curve, on the right, gained vs. last week.
This divergence is interesting and how the two raw materials will influence the other could be a major driver for the Midwest HRC price in the short term. Especially, considering China will close for two weeks to celebrate the Chinese New Year starting tomorrow.
On the domestic front, January CME Midwest HRC futures settled the month at $614/st, up $28/st or 4.7% MoM. Some of the domestic steel indexes have printed higher this week with the SBB Platts index printing and maintaining $630. February Midwest HRC futures closed at $630/st last night. The curve didn’t move much for the week with only a slight week-over-week gain in April and May.
David Feldstein
Read more from David FeldsteinLatest in Futures
HR Futures: Rangebound and waiting for 2025
In the last article written for SMU, we looked at the rallies that followed both the 2016 and 2022 presidential elections, as well as the moves in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
HR futures: Volatility, tariffs, and global shifts – What’s next for prices in 2025?
Import arbitrations expressed via futures may become enticing as coil price spreads expand. The spread market in CME US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently navigating a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating post-election, leaving traders uncertain about the market's direction.
Nearby HR futures pull back as 2024 nears end
After experiencing a rally ahead of the 2024 election, the nearby part of CME HRC futures complex has softened as we approach year-end. Meanwhile, the forward positions (second half of 2025) have remained supported and largely unchanged.
HRC Futures: Here comes Trump bump 2.0?
No more excuses! The election is over. Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday January 20 with the Republican party in control of Congress. Now, it is time to get back to work!
HR Futures: Which way following election?
Since June, The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been in a rare period of prolonged price stability, closely mirroring the subdued volatility seen in the physical market. Over the past five months, futures have been rangebound, with prices oscillating between a floor near $680 and a ceiling around $800. This tight range, highlighted in the chart, underscores a cautious market environment. The chart below shows the rolling 3rd month CME HRC Future.