SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey Results: Flat Rolled Steel Price Direction
Written by John Packard
July 10, 2016
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are not believers that the next move will be for higher flat rolled steel prices over the next couple of months. At least that is what the respondents to our most recent flat rolled steel questionnaire believe.
Based on the analysis of last week’s survey, 60 percent of those responding believe prices would go sideways from here. Another 35 percent thought prices would move lower while 5 percent were of the opinion that prices would go higher.
We did have a number of comments left from those responding to this question:
“If they continue to move up the drop could be greater. They should let the market catch up and pause for a month.” Trading company
“HR will lower. CR and Coated will stay sideways.” Service center
“Dramatic change over the last 6-8 weeks with allocations in the rear view mirror. No question in my mind that we will see some price erosion the only issue is how much.” Service center
“Prices should move down in the 4th qtr.” Manufacturing company
“They are already wanting to deal to lock down 4th Qtr orders. I don’t believe it will come down a lot though.” Service center
“Imports will put a cap on pricing… The Domestics have until September/October to hold pricing.” Service center
“Sideways through the summer and perhaps, maybe a little correction of too much too fast.” Service center
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
Apparent steel supply eases in August
The volume of finished steel entering the US market declined in August from July, according to SMU’s analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this monthly rate by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
September service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 60.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.7 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers declined in September, though still seasonally high. September’s report reflects lower demand, stable lead times, and restocking early in the third quarter at a perceived bottom in prices. At the end […]
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices diverge
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in different directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased to a six-week low, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment ticked up to a four-week high. Both of our Indices continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.
SMU survey: Mill lead times stretch out marginally
Steel mill lead times inched up this week for most sheet and plate products, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.