Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 2, 2015
Tonight I thought I would present a question posed to me within the past couple of days and ask for your input in answering the question. How would you respond to this?
Has the steel industry in the US stopped following laws of economics or are we living the great delusion of “ok” demand? Consider the following facts:
1. Steel imports into US have trended down from June thru Oct meanwhile domestic production has also fallen –> suggests demand slowness
2. Despite trade cases and relatively few tons of steel actually coming from China, US steel mills have not tried raising prices
3. Service center shipments have trended down from spring onward and inventory levels are relatively high with MoS at around 2.8 – 3.0
4. From demand perspective – auto is doing well and construction is doing okay and these account for 60-70% of steel demand in USA
5. Assuming, turmoil in Machinery/Energy .. demand might have slackened by 5-7 MM tonnes (annualized) but idled mills account for ~ 4-5 MM tonnes
Will appreciate your thoughts. Am I underestimating the machinery/energy/other industry impact?
You can respond by sending an email to me directly: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. You are also welcome to contact my office by phone if you are more comfortable speaking with me directly: 800-432-3475.
We will be reporting on the ongoing scrap negotiations in Sunday evening’s newsletter. Will poor demand at the steel mills trump slowing collection rates?
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.
Final Thoughts
What happens when ChatGPT meets SMU's Market Chatter? No, this is not an idea for the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Then again, with what Hollywood is putting out these days, Chatter Meets Chat might just turn out to be a hit. Rather, it’s that old idea of putting theory into practice. Recently, I conducted an interview with Doug Schrock, managing principal of AI at public accounting and consulting firm Crowe. He gave some tips on how to implement AI into your business.