Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 9, 2015
I am here in New York City participating in the Cowen & Company Global Metals and Mining Conference. Day one was dedicated to the steel industry and the various commodities (scrap, iron ore, metallurgical coal). I thought I would provide a snapshot into some of the comments made during the conference by various CEO’s.
Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources told the group that the preliminary countervailing duty results on the CORE trade suit “was better than expected.” He pointed to the 1998 hot rolled case that he was involved in saw much lower preliminary duties than what were announced last week.
Jim Wainscott, CEO of AK Steel (about to become Chairman of the Board) said, “There is no doubt in my mind that prices could pop back to previous levels [earlier he referenced $650 per ton].” He backed off the initial enthusiasm when he went on to say, “We will return to normal levels, whatever that means.”
Gregg Mollins, CEO of Reliance Steel & Aluminum said the service centers apparently did not learn their lesson in 2009 when it came to inventories. He said when distributors have bad years it is almost always related to inventory levels. He told the group that Reliance managed their inventories, they don’t speculate and they were able to raise margins during 2015.
Mario Longhi, CEO of US Steel said that they are spending time with the ITC commissioners as they want to make sure they have an understanding of “injury” which previously had been taken totally out of context.
Jim Wainscott told the group, “You have to play hardball with China.”
The CEO’s pointed out that the prices outside of China are $20 to $30 per ton higher than when China is involved in exporting steel to that country.
On a personal front I was able to secure one of our keynote speakers for next year’s Steel Summit Conference… (August 30-31, 2016 in Atlanta).
As always your business is truly appreciated.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
We had an October surprise here at SMU on Wednesday. I was working from the CRU office in Pittsburgh, and the internet connection briefly went out. As luck would have it, that happened smack in the middle of a live Community Chat webinar. Fortunately, my colleague David Schollaert stepped in, Zekelman Industries CEO Barry Zekelman rolled with the punches – and the show went on. Could there be any more October surprises in store for us and for the steel market?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped up another Steel 101 workshop, easily the most hands-on industry workshop on steelmaking and market fundamentals, in this humble opinion. Last week on Tuesday and Wednesday, SMU’s Steel 101 was held in Starkville, Miss.
Final Thoughts
Everybody has an opinion about politics these days. More importantly for our readers, though, every business has a bottom line. A popular question in our most recent steel buyers survey asked how uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could affect that line.
Final Thoughts
I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.
Final Thoughts
It’s another week of big headlines for the world writ large – an expanding war in the Middle East, another potentially catastrophic hurricane – and not much going on in the world of steel prices. “Call me Stevie Wonder, I see nothing.” That’s how one service center executive described the current sheet market. There seems to be almost a competition among some of our Community Chat guests and contributors to outdo each other in flowery ways to say, “