Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 21, 2015
Demand (or the lack thereof) seems to be the real culprit affecting the steel market and prices at this moment. I spoke with one of the larger service centers this afternoon and asked: would imports be reduced enough to impact U.S. supply and trigger a price spike? I asked what were the chances that the market would turn in 2016 and steel all of a sudden get tight?
The response I got was, “15% chance. Soft demand and over supply domestically – not to mention the international market will keep pressure on the market. Small pockets of volatility can be expected.” They went on to say, “If oil doesn’t come back – what drives demand?”
For those of you who attended our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta at the beginning of September,Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research adjusted her hot rolled coil prognostication for 2016. Her new numbers are: 1Q 2016 HRC = $505 per ton, 2Q 2016 = $510 per ton, 3Q 2016 = $525 per ton and 4Q 2016 = $500 per ton. Average for the year = $510 per ton.
I will keep my comments short tonight.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
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John Packard
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Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
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Final thoughts
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
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Final thoughts
I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
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Final thoughts
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
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Final thoughts
The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.