Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 19, 2015
I will be in my office all week (yea!) this week. This is probably the first time I have spent a full week behind my desk in the last couple of months. If you have any questions for me this is a good week to track me down and ask away….
I would like to take a moment to thank Ira Kreft, Mary Blizzard and all of the good people at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch offices in Chicago for allowing me to speak to a number of their clients this past week.
I also want to thank the Association of Steel Distributors for hosting Ray Culley and myself at their Chicago regional meeting. I am quite certain that we will see a number of the ASD membership at our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta on September 1st and 2nd.
We have a new writer who will be splitting the duties of writing about hot rolled coil (HRC) futures, busheling (BUS) futures and iron ore trading. We want to welcome Spencer Johnson who is a risk management consultant in ferrous and base metals with FC Stone, LLC. If you have any questions you would like Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC or Spencer Johnson to tackle, please send them to: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Registration is open for our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop which will be held in Davenport, Iowa and will include a tour of the SSAB mini-mill (EAF). Information is on our website or you are free to contact me in my office with any questions that you might have. Steel Market Update member companies receive special discounts on this (and all) workshop as well as our Steel Summit Conference. The dates on the Steel 101 workshop in Iowa are October 6-7, 2015.
If you are currently on a free trial to our newsletter and would like to learn more about becoming a member (subscriber) please feel free to contact me at 800-432-3475 or by email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We very much would like to earn your business.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
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Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.