Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 5, 2014
Part of my talk at the 2014 HARDI conference was regarding galvanized imports which reached 325,000 net tons in October and appear will be approximately 300,000 tons when the November Census Data numbers are released later this month. To put this into perspective, at this point last year the U.S. received 150,000 net tons and the average for 2013 was closer to 175,000 tons per month. The 300,000 ton level is quite high when you consider that The Techs three galvanizing lines when running full are about 80,000 tons per month. It takes quite a few galvanizing lines to equal 300,000 tons.
This is what galvanized imports look like over the past few years. The domestic mills have to be concerned. Is this one of the reasons why ArcelorMittal decided to close their number 2 galvanizing line at Indiana Harbor West?
Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) is the HARDI economist with an exceptional record of accuracy. So, it was interesting to hear him forecasting a “Great Recession” to hit the world by 2030. I will write more about this in the days to come.He did mention that baby boomers will come out of this alright (end of our rope), Gen-X will be the worst hurt and Millennials could do very well if they do things ahead of time to prepare.
Over the short term ITR is forecasting a slight slowdown during the first 6 months 2015 before picking up during the second half of the year. Mr. Beaulieu will speak again tomorrow so I hope to write more on his comments on Tuesday evening.
I am working on trying to get Mr. Beaulieu to speak at our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta on September 1-2, 2015. Mark your calendars, put the money in your budgets as we believe we will produce a conference even better than what we did earlier this year.
I am in San Antonio where I spoke to the HARDI wholesalers, manufacturing companies associated with HARDI and others interested in galvanized steel. Steel Market Update was spoofed by the speaker just before I went on. The speakers had been asked to keep our presentations free of advertising for our companies. So, Tim Quinn of Majestic Steel was speaking about the consolidation of the steel industry and after he began his talk he removed his jacket. He then mentioned to the group that the speakers had been asked to forgo “shameless self-promotion.” He then proceeded to turn around so that the assembled crowd could see the Steel Market Update name across the back of his shirt. A good laugh was had by all.
Our training workshops were mentioned a number of times during the HARDI conference. There are a number of companies here who have had employees attend our Steel 101 workshops and are doing very well within their company. We encourage anyone who would like to learn more about how steel is made, rolled, qualities produced, bought and sold and market influences that affect pricing and sales. Our next workshop is coming up in January. It will be held outside of Charleston, SC on January 20 & 21, 2015. A tour of Nucor Berkeley is part of our program. You can find out more on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I will be in San Antonio through Tuesday of this week returning to the office for one day (Wednesday) before leaving to conduct our special sales training workshop at a service center in Louisiana.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
SMU looks back at stories from Decembers past, one, five, 10, and 100 years ago.
Final Thoughts
It's that time of year again. You know, that time when people wonder if those things are drones in New Jersey or if the aliens are ready to come onto the stage just in time for Inauguration Day. What will that do for steel price volatility? In any case, the SMU team finds itself in Pittsburgh this week.
Final Thoughts
The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.
Final Thoughts
Cracks have formed in what has been presented as the Biden administration’s united front against Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel. A report from the Financial Times said parts of the administration are at odds on the deal.
Final Thoughts
It’s been another week of torrid speculation when it comes Trump and tariffs. And another week of mostly flat price movement when it comes to steel sheet and plate. As far as Trump and tariffs go, I think I might have lost track. We've potentially got 10% blanket tariffs on imports from China, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 100% tariffs on the BRICs, and 200% on Caterpillar. Canada might be the 51st state. Mexico could be the 52nd state. But all can be resolved if you stop by Mar-a-Lago and kiss the ring?