Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: HR Ties Low Point for the Year

December 2, 2014

Flat rolled steel prices began slipping once again as our benchmark hot rolled average broke through the $630 mark for the first time since the middle of March. The new average is now at the lowest level for the calendar year (tied with mid-March) and is poised to set a new low point for the year should prices continue to erode from here.

We shouldn’t get too freaked out over these levels as the range from high to low has been very modest throughout this calendar year, with $680 per ton being the high and $620 per ton the low. In the not too distant past we had months, in fact we had weeks, where prices moved $60 per ton, either on the way up or on the way down, during a pricing cycle.

The question we are asking ourselves now is: Will volatility come back in force in 2015 or will we see another modest swing of $60 maybe $80 per ton for the year? What worries us at Steel Market Update is the value of the dollar against other currencies. The strength of the dollar is not a good sign for stability in commodity, scrap and steel prices. We also worry about: imports, imports, imports – they just keep on coming and we are hearing from our steel buying sources there is nothing happening to minimize the spread between foreign and domestic which keeps buyers interested in imports, imports, imports. Then there are questions about supply and demand, service center inventories and what will true growth be next year for the steel industry?

We saw a number of mills over the past week or so move the bottom of their range to the $600 per ton level ($30.00/cwt). SMU asked a service center buyer this afternoon if there were tonnage requirements attached to the $600 number and his response was, “It is their [mill name removed] spot number for our company.” A second service center coined the market as “sloppy” right now as, “…mills need business.”

Here is how we see prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $600-$640 per ton ($30.00/cwt- $32.00/cwt) with an average of $620 per ton ($31.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range decreased by $10 per ton compared to one week ago. Our average is now $10 per ton lower than one week ago. SMU price momentum for hot rolled steel is for prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $730-$770 per ton ($36.50/cwt- $38.50/cwt) with an average of $750 per ton ($37.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined by $10 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end was unchanged. Our average is now $5 per ton lower than one week ago. SMU price momentum on cold rolled steel is for prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $35.00/cwt-$38.00/cwt ($700-$760 per ton) with an average of $36.50/cwt ($730 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range are unchanged compared to one week ago, as is our average. SMU anticipates galvanized prices will drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $769-$829 per ton with an average of $799 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $36.00/cwt-$38.50/cwt ($720-$770 per ton) with an average of $37.25/cwt ($745 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range are unchanged compared to last week, as is our average. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1011-$1061 per ton with an average of $1036 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

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