Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 13, 2014
It was nice to see that US Steel was able to get a contract with their USW Local 1005 at Hamilton Works in Canada. Their contract was set to expire tomorrow (October 15th).
For our Premium level members, we should have the Imports by Product, Port and Country for August on our website by sometime tomorrow afternoon. Last week’s survey power point presentation is already on the website. Late this week, or over the weekend, we anticipate that the MSCI shipment and inventory data will be released and we will see how our last forecast came out and then reproduce a new forecast based on the latest data and how it fits into our model.
As I mentioned in our pricing article at the beginning of this newsletter, I am hearing mixed opinions regarding the ability of the steel mills to hold the current line on pricing. The two tightest regions appear to be the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into portions of the Mid-Atlanta. The weaker areas are the south and southeast due to the proximity to ports and access to foreign steel. One of the steel mills in the south pointed to the influx of foreign steel and predicted that flat rolled MSCI inventories would be 2.5 or 2.6 months, if not this month, soon.
One of our contributing writers and a consultant to the steel industry, Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates is working on an extensive look at imports from a slightly different perspective. We hope that Paul will have the article ready for our Thursday evening edition of SMU.
We are also looking at the price of oil and have been asked if oil continues to drop what impact will it have on the steel industry. The answer is if it continues to fall the impact could be quite large as drillers put off drilling new oil and gas wells. We will look into this subject in more depth in the coming days.
A hearty welcome to our newest members both free trials and annual members. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions please do not hesitate to contact us: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.
Final Thoughts
What’s been the impact of tariff threats on prices and demand? In short, not much – or at least that was the case when I was writing this column on Sunday afternoon. Spot activity for Canadian material, for example, has been put on hold over the last few weeks while the market waits to see what the new tariff landscape might look like.
Final Thoughts
Next Monday marks the start of the second Trump administration. The limbo we’ve been living in since Election Day in early November will finally come to an end. What better way to take a look at what’s coming up in Washington, D.C., than a conversation with Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell. He […]
Final Thoughts
It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.
Final Thoughts
I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.