Steel Products Prices North America
SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Slippage
Written by Brett Linton
August 26, 2014
Based on our conversations with steel buyers and analysis of the data we received from steel mills, service centers and end users, we saw some slippage in flat rolled steel prices this week. Not enough to change our position (Neutral) on the market. But, there was enough to make us sit up and take notice. The weakest product at the moment appears to be hot rolled. The other products have been essentially holding their own so a $5 per ton movement in one direction or another is not an indicator of a collapse of the market by any stretch of the imagination.
An the market is waiting to see if the long rumored flat rolled dumping suits (cold rolled and coated) will be filed yet this week or early next week. The suits, if filed, could spark Momentum to move off Neutral…
Here is how we are seeing prices this week:
Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $640-$690 per ton ($32.00/cwt- $34.50/cwt) with an average of $665 per ton ($33.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased by $20 per ton compared to one week ago while the upper end remained the same. Our average is now $10 per ton lower compared to one week ago. SMU price momentum for hot rolled steel is for prices to remain neutral (relatively stable) over the next 30 days unless something happens which will push prices in one direction or another.
Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks.
Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $770-$810 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $40.50/cwt) with an average of $790 per ton ($39.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased by $10 per ton compared to one week ago while the upper end remained the same. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to one week ago. SMU price momentum on cold rolled steel is for prices to remain neutral (relatively stable) over the next 30 days. However, this could change if the domestic mills file dumping suits. Although the suits themselves may not have any immediate impact on pricing as inventories are stable to growing and there is plenty of steel arriving over the next couple of months.
Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.
Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $770-$800 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $40.00/cwt) with an average of $785 per ton ($39.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to one week ago while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to one week ago. SMU anticipates galvanized base prices will remain neutral (relatively stable) over the next 30 days. Galvanized is another product which could be influenced by the filing of dumping suits. On top of that we have the adjustment in coating extras which by themselves equate to a $10-$30 per ton increase (or more for thinner steels and heavier coating weights) on many of the medium to lighter gauge steels.
Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $830-$860 per ton with an average of $845 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies. SMU Note: This will be the last week we will use a $3.00/cwt coating extra to calculate our .060″ G90 pricing. Beginning next week we will revert to the new USS coating extra which is $3.45/cwt ($9 per ton increase). We will advise regarding how CRU is handling their galvanized extras on the same product next week (Josh Spoores of CRU is speaking on the subject of indices at our Steel Summit Conference).
Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.
Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $770-$820 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $41.00/cwt) with an average of $795 per ton ($39.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to one week ago. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to remain neutral (relatively stable) over the next 30 days. Galvalume is another item which has been rumored to be in the sites for a possible dumping suit. We may learn more about the market penetration foreign steel has made into Galvalume and possibly other steels when Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates speaks at our Steel Summit Conference next week in Atlanta.
Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1061-$1111 per ton with an average of $1086 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.
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Brett Linton
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