Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Steel Price Ranges & Indices: What's Next?

August 12, 2014

The market continues to be firm and prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks. We are finding the number of outliers, those companies buying at the extreme highs or extreme lows has shrunk. Most products are being offered close to the averages referenced below. At the moment the weakest products appears to be the two products most influenced by foreign steel imports: cold rolled and Galvalume (and geography comes into play).

As we spoke with buyers we learned that lead times are within reasonable ranges with hot rolled averaging 3-4 weeks and cold rolled and coated 5-6 weeks or so. Lead times at individual mills can vary and you need to work with your mill sales and inside support people to obtain the correct lead time for orders you are looking to place today.

The question being asked by virtually everyone associated with the flat rolled steel industry is, what’s next? With the threat of dumping suits looming over the buyers heads, warehouses at the ports stuffed to the rafters with foreign steel and decent demand levels (with some supply coming back online). Where will prices go from here? We will try to address that question in another article in tonight’s issue.

First, here is how we see flat rolled prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $660-$690 per ton ($33.00/cwt- $34.50/cwt) with an average of $675 per ton ($33.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to one week ago. SMU price momentum for hot rolled steel is for prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days or until we have an event (like the removal of the Russian Suspension Agreement) which will move prices in one direction or another.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $760-$810 per ton ($38.00/cwt- $40.50/cwt) with an average of $785 per ton ($39.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to one week ago. SMU price momentum on cold rolled steel is for prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days or until something happens (like a dumping suit) which will move prices in one direction or the other.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $770-$810 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $40.50/cwt) with an average of $790 per ton ($39.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range increased by $10 per ton compared to last week. Our average is now $10 per ton higher compared to one week ago. SMU anticipates galvanized base prices will remain neutral over the next 30 days or until we have an event (such as a dumping suit being filed) which will move prices in one direction or the other.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $830-$870 per ton with an average of $850 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $770-$820 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $41.00/cwt) with an average of $795 per ton ($39.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to one week ago. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days (same comments as those mentioned for cold rolled and galvanized).

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1061-$1111 per ton with an average of $1086 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

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