SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Mixed Messages

A large coated service center told us earlier today, “The market is firm today. Our mill numbers for August production are up $20-$30 from our standard July orders, but up $60-$65 from the deals offered for big tons just 30 days ago…and the domestics have no interest in negotiating today…”

A large manufacturing company told us, “We haven’t seen any changes whatsoever. I keep hearing of prices going up (or at least talk of them going up) but we have not seen it. Lead times seem to be unchanged as well.”

A large service center reported hot rolled prices as being within a tight range to their company at $660-$685 with most mills offering $670-$680. They told us regarding lead times, “Some mills are reporting being out 1 week later vs. last week (i.e. they were at 4 weeks on HR and now are 5 weeks), but these appear to be related to maintenance or mix cycles. I think I’d describe them as flat, but not entirely sure yet.” This same service center told us they had enough inventories to last them through September. At that time they would buy heavier for October and November, “…since I have conviction that prices will be lower at that time, than they are today.”

While in the Upper Midwest a service center buyer told us the spot hot rolled offers were at $680 and their mill suppliers were, “…plenty backed up. AK is the worst!”

One conversion mill admitted to SMU earlier today that they had to take one of the products pricing down slightly while another was able to be increased. They pointed to foreign steel competition in their market as the reason one product had to be lowered while the other product, which did not suffer from the same competitive pressures, was able to be increased.

Steel Market Update continues to have our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral because, like a couple of our sources above, we aren’t quite sure where prices are headed over the next 30 days…

Here is how we see prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $660-$690 per ton ($33.00/cwt- $34.50/cwt) with an average of $675 per ton ($33.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased by $10 per ton compared to last week while the upper end remained the same. Our average is now $5 per ton higher compared to one week ago. SMU price momentum for hot rolled is for prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-5 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $770-$820 per ton ($38.50/cwt- $41.00/cwt) with an average of $795 per ton ($39.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to last week while the upper end increased by $10 per ton. Our average is $5 per ton higher than it was last week. SMU price momentum on cold rolled is for prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $760-$810 per ton ($38.00/cwt- $40.50/cwt) with an average of $785 per ton ($39.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained the same compared to last week while the upper end increased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton higher compared to one week ago. SMU anticipates galvanized base prices will remain neutral over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $820-$870 per ton with an average of $845 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $760-$820 per ton ($38.00/cwt- $41.00/cwt) with an average of $790 per ton ($39.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to last week. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to remain neutral over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1051-$1111 per ton with an average of $1081 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

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