SMU Data and Models
March at a Glance
Written by John Packard
April 1, 2014
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum reversed course due to the price increase announcement led by ArcelorMittal and followed by virtually all of the domestic and Canadian steel mills. We moved the SMU Price Momentum Indicator first to Neutral and then a week later to Higher in response to the increase announcements and the fact that the mills began collecting higher prices on flat rolled steels.
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index last measured in mid-March was +40 which is well within the optimistic range of our Index.
Hot rolled prices averaged $626 per ton for the month which was $1 per ton higher than the CRU average of $625 per ton. We are adding a new line item to our monthly recap. The line item is noted as Other Contract Index Platts so our readers can compare CRU, Platts and SMU with CRU and Platts now being used as contract adjustment vehicles. Platts average for HRC for the month was $643 per ton, $18 per ton higher than CRU and $17 per ton higher than SMU.
Scrap prices were down in the Chicago area markets. Iron ore spot pricing in China was also down although the commodity has been bouncing back over the past few days.
SMU service center inventories stood at 2.25 months as of mid-March while MSCI had their inventories at 2.3 months on a seasonally adjusted basis as of the end of February.
Auto sales have been lower than originally forecast at 15.3 million units (annualized) at the end of February. Projections are for sales closer to 16.5 million units during the full calendar year.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel buyers maintain confident market outlook
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices showed mixed movements this week but remain strong, reflecting continued confidence among steel buyers.
SMU Survey: Perspectives differ on impact of Trump tariffs
Are President Trump's tariff policies helping? Steel buyers offer their opinions on the impact of Trump's tariffs.
SMU Survey: Lead times stabilize as tariff-induced buying slows
After a multi-week increase, buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that lead times are stabilizing or marginally declining for each of the sheet and plate products we track.
SMU Survey: Mills hold firm on price, little negotiation room for buyers
The majority of the steel buyers responding to our latest market survey continue to report that domestic mills remain firm on pricing, showing little willingness to talk price on new spot orders this week.
HRC vs. scrap spread widens over $150/ton in March
The HRC vs. prime scrap spread increased again in March.