Service Center Inventories: SMU Projections

For Premium Level members, Steel Market Update is producing forecasts based on our estimates as to where we believe shipments and inventories will end up at the end of the next four months. We are then able to project our Apparent Excess/Deficit based on those numbers using our formula. Here is what we think the next four months will look like:

After forecasting service center inventories, shipments and the Apparent Excess or Deficit which will exist at that point in time we then can forecast price movements. Here is how our steel price forecast looks for the next four months:

As we continue to work with our model one item which could play havoc is the amount of foreign flat rolled due into the United States over the next four months. If flat rolled imports surge this would impact inventory levels and the domestic mill order books and thus our price forecasts. We are continuing to work on our models which we will share with our Premium Level members.

A note to our Premium Level members – November imports by product, port and country are available on the website. This includes hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and other metallic (Galvalume and aluminized – most of which is Galvalume).

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