SMU Data and Models
SMU End of Month Data – October
Written by John Packard
October 31, 2013
It has now been three consecutive months that the SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been at Neutral. Flat rolled steel prices have broken out of the $640 per ton doldrums with benchmark hot rolled coil haven risen to $665 as of earlier this week.
The monthly average for benchmark hot rolled is $651 per ton which happens to be the same as the CRU hot rolled coil settlement number for HRC Futures trading.
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +37.5 for the month. Sentiment has been dropping over the past three months. However, Future Sentiment – which measures how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful 3 to 6 months in the future continues to be high at +50.5.
SMU MoMo (price momentum measured on a scale) broke out of negative territory during October as prices began to move higher.
MSCI flat rolled inventory levels came in at 2.1 months while SMU inventory levels were measured at 2.17 months (average of the two surveys taken during the month of October).
SMU Service Center Apparent Inventory Deficit at the end of September was -382,000 tons down from 463,000 tons at the end of August.
Imports are much higher and exports (report below) were also higher during the month of August (last month data has been completed).
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.