Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 3, 2013
A quick note about ferrous scrap. From the early deals being done – and there are still a number yet which need to be completed. Our sources are advising us that scrap prices have been trading lower by $5 to $10 per gross ton in the east. However, in the Midwest there have been trades made in the Chicago/Northern Indiana markets at the same numbers as September. We are hearing prime grades of scrap such as busheling traded sideways in Cincinnati and in Ontario. In Pittsburgh and Birmingham we heard primes off $5 per gross ton. The market appears to be a little better than what one dealer had forecast over the weekend when he projected prices to be lower by as much as $20 per gross ton on prime grades.
Peter Wright mentioned in an article above how the shutdown of the government is affecting public data which is released on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. One of the items affecting are imports and exports. The U.S. Department of Commerce website concerning imports is usually updated every Tuesday around 5 PM ET. No update this week.
For those of you who are unaware, our next Steel 101 workshop is next week in Blytheville, Arkansas. Besides myself, John Temples, John Eckstein, Peter Wright, Steve Painter and Diana will be in Blytheville. We are touring the Nucor Hickman mini-mill and I want to take a moment to once again thank them for allowing us to both tour and interact with their people. We are looking forward to the experience.
After the Blytheville/Hickman Steel 101 workshop our next one will be held in Mobile, Alabama and will include a tour of our first plate mini-mill when we tour SSAB in Axis, Alabama. Mark your calendars for February 4-5, 2014. More details will be coming soon.
I want to welcome our newest members both individual and corporate. We encourage all of our members to interact with us should you have any questions, comments or suggestions – we are all ears and appreciate feedback. It is the constant interaction that we have with the buying and selling community which prompts many of our articles.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.
Final thoughts
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
Final thoughts
I think all of us know that sometimes courtships go wrong. A misplaced word or deed and soon things can go sideways, and not in the prices sense. Such could be the case with Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel.
Final thoughts
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.
Final thoughts
The phrase “political football” has been tossed around a lot lately. (Pun probably intended.) For the humble journalists at SMU who thought the week following Steel Summit would prove a quiet one… the news cycle had other ideas