Futures
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Iron Ore & Scrap Futures
Written by Bradley Clark
September 19, 2013
TSI Iron Ore: Prices Wobble in Signs Market is Cooling…
Iron ore prices have softened over the past couple of weeks, but are still holding the recent range above $130 per ton. Mixed news out of China regarding steel demand has cooled off buying for the time being as the market has failed to break through the recent ceiling on prices. The forward curve remains significantly backwardated with Q4 trading at $128, Q1 126 and cal 14 at $117, indicating that general market sentiment is that the question is when rather than if prices will retreat.
Volumes on SGX remain very strong.
U.S. Midwest #1 Busheling Ferrous Scrap (AMM) Mid-Month Stagnation
There is very little to say about the busheling futures market as no trades have been reported and very few prices if any have been seen in the market. As has been the case over the past years, the middle of the month tends to be the quietest as the flow of information from the physical market is anemic. The initial sentiment is for prices on busheling to soften around $10 per ton in October unless a surge in demand from Turkey sucks up exports tons or domestic mills increase their purchases ahead of an expectation for an end of the year surge in production.
Again, there have been no reported trades this past week.
Bradley Clark
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HR Futures: Meaningful rally grips market
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HRC and scrap futures: Markets pop on hot steel and tariff headlines
It’s been an event-filled month in US ferrous derivatives markets since my last column for SMU. There’s been no shortage of writings and musing about the ongoing steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And steel and scrap futures markets have responded accordingly. CME HRC futures prices have risen, and the curve has firmed. The February 2025 HRC futures contract, now in the pricing period, has added $47 per short ton (st) since its contact lows on Jan. 20 to settle at $767/st today.
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HR Futures: What’s next for HRC and busheling prices?
Since the publication of our last market update on Dec. 10, several notable developments have shaped the landscape
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HR Futures: Awaiting Trump’s 25% tariff
Midwest HRC indices have been stuck in a tight range since last summer with the weekly CRU Midwest HRC price spending the past 32 weeks between $656 and $714 per short ton (st). The rolling Midwest HRC future has been rangebound between roughly $650 to $800 since last June. The rate at which the price of HRC futures move over a certain period or “volatility” has compressed dramatically over the past few months.
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HR Futures: Market coiled and ready to move in 2025?
The last six months have been littered with uncertainty and mixed signals, a choppy and rangebound market. Spot indices have largely held steady, despite the pressure from domestic mills pushing for higher prices on spot tons. This has provided a signal of a lack of upward momentum and little downside room based on mill costs. […]