SMU Community Chat with AWMI and AMU on steel AND aluminum

What we talked about

We discussed what we’re seeing and hearing down in the trenches – including highlights from our latest steel survey data, and insights on the aluminum market. We also took questions.

Why you should listen

On the steel side, prices have soared amid panic buying after a slow start to the year. The sharp gains come on the heels of increased scrap costs and the potential for punitive tariffs – including against the United States’ traditional allies and trading partners.

The measures include a more stringent Section 232, potential blanket tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, reciprocal tariffs on VATs, and even 25% tariffs on cars and trucks. (Not to mention the AD/CVD trade case on coated products.) Increased domestic capacity could help offset a potential supply squeeze. But how is underlying demand?

When it comes to aluminum, Trump’s tariffs are even more disruptive – with S232 going from 10% to 25% and now applying to all countries with no exemptions. On top of that, the tariffs have been expanded beyond raw aluminum to include semis and processed aluminum products. This is going to hit the supply chains hard, and in some ways, it has already.

Another challenge comes from the rise of AI, which could send energy demand and electricity rates soaring.

Editor’s note

SMU is expanding from our traditional steel markets into aluminum too. We’re thrilled to be able to bring you experts who can speak to both ferrous and nonferrous markets. Stayed tuned to SMU for more coverage in that space.