That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.
As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.
The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.
Do we want the benefits of the Section 232 tariffs to flow to the bottom lines of foreign steel and aluminum producers or to the US government and, ultimately, domestic manufacturers and their workers? In our view, the answer is simple. Section 232 exceptions do nothing more than lead to underserved profits for foreign manufacturers who are harming the US industrial base. That revenue could be used to pursue the Trump administration’s other policy priorities - such as deficit reduction or expanded tax cuts.
I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).
With a chronic trade deficit, the administration will continue to cite more tariffs as necessary. This is in error, as noted above. Yet the base of President Trump’s support does not see it that way. More tariffs are possible. But the only way to reduce the US trade deficit substantially is to close the gap between savings and investment in the United States.
It’s been an event-filled month in US ferrous derivatives markets since my last column for SMU. There’s been no shortage of writings and musing about the ongoing steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And steel and scrap futures markets have responded accordingly. CME HRC futures prices have risen, and the curve has firmed. The February 2025 HRC futures contract, now in the pricing period, has added $47 per short ton (st) since its contact lows on Jan. 20 to settle at $767/st today.
Unions members on both sides of the US-Canada border are speaking out against President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel. They say the tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and subvert decades of economic cooperation. The United Steelworkers (USW) has more than 850,000 total members in North America, with 225,000 in Canada.
Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here.
A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.
The new version of Section 232 goes into effect on 12:01 am ET on March 12, according to the executive order. The latest iteration of Section 232 removed quotas, exemptions, and other carve outs that had accumulated over years.
President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.
Nippon Steel has agreed to “invest heavily in U.S. Steel as opposed to own it,” President Donald Trump said on Friday during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. U.S. Steel is “a very important company” and was once “the greatest company in the world”. Of potential foreign ownership of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker, Trump said, “the concept, psychologically, not good."
The day-to-day bustle of these announcements should not obscure what they signal for other potential tariff measures in the near term and a revamped trade and economic policy in the long term.
"Personally, I find it very hard to believe that we would be in a trade war with Mexico and Canada for more than a few months at any given time. I don't know how Mexico and Canada could survive that. That's a recession for them. That's a few points off GDP for us - my opinion.”
As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.