"Personally, I find it very hard to believe that we would be in a trade war with Mexico and Canada for more than a few months at any given time. I don't know how Mexico and Canada could survive that. That's a recession for them. That's a few points off GDP for us - my opinion.”
Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities
As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.
While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
Steel and aluminum have been identified as high priorities for trade
Canada fights back, a little As this article was about to be posted, Canada had not backed down to US President Trump’s 25% tariffs coming for Canadian goods at the stroke of midnight. In fact, the Government of Canada had pushed back, saying it would implement 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of US products […]
“It is not by imposing tariffs that problems are resolved, but by talking and dialoguing,” President Claudia Sheinbaum said.
The benefits from higher tariffs are speculative and unproven. The disruptions caused by tariffs and other trade restrictions are better documented and cannot be rationally denied. For the tariffs to be good policy, the Trump argument must therefore be sure that the benefits to the US exceed the cost of these disruptions. Otherwise, we have madness masquerading as policy.
The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.
The scrap and metallics market has reacted to the tariffs potentially being implemented on our neighbors to the north and south. These could have a serious impact on the market, especially on Canada, unless these products are exempted.
Hitting Canada with a 25% tariff could allow imported goods from other origins at proposed 10%-20% tariffs.
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) has urged Canada to engage with the US administration to avoid the tariffs threatened by the Trump administration by Feb. 1. “The imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods will have an incredibly disruptive impact on our integrated North American supply chains and on our workers and their families,” François […]
USMCA is option 1 but will cost more or not be big enough
Mexican steel trade association Canacero said US steel exports represent “a threat to the Mexican steel industry.” Canacero also backed retaliatory measures if President Trump enacts 25% tariffs on Mexico by Feb. 1.
But the Swedish steelmaker is optimistic about a rebound
“More needs to be done to ensure that these illegally dumped and subsidized imports do not continue to distort the American market in a road profitability," Nucor's CEO said.
Nucor Corp. posted sharply lower fourth quarter earnings on Monday driven in part by lower average selling prices at its steel mills. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker also warned that first-quarter results might not be much better in commentary released with earnings data. But Nucor said that it expected better times later in 2025. It also hinted at the possibility of ramped up trade restrictions – including more stringent Section 232 tariffs.
The Trump administration has backed off tariffs on Colombia after the White House said the leader of the Latin American nation agreed to President Trump’s demands. “The Government of Colombia has agreed to President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States… without limitation or delay,” according […]
President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.
Day One of the second Trump administration did not bring tariffs, but it did signal that tariffs, and other major trade actions, are not far off.
Executive orders, LME volatility and more
Alan Kestenbaum was the featured speaker at SMU’s Community Chat on Wednesday, where he discussed US Steel, tariffs, climate policy and other topics.
Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.
President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that he was considering placing tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico. The president said the tariffs could go into effect as soon as Feb. 1. President Trump threatened the tariffs as he signed a raft of executive orders in front of reporters in the Oval […]
I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.
We’ll talk about what to expect from the incoming Trump administration, the changing trade and tariff landscape, and what it all means for the domestic steel industry.
AGC said Trump should be “sparing” in imposing new tariffs and exclude products needed for domestic manufacturing, energy and infrastructure.
We are quickly approaching Inauguration Day. The market still has no definitive clue as to how the Trump administration will execute on its threat to apply universal tariffs to all imports. Compounding this are the threats to apply 25% duties against our USMCA partners - Canada and Mexico.
It feels a little like déjà vu: Trump threatens tariffs, Canada retaliates with tariffs of its own.
Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell will join SMU for our first Community Chat of 2025. We’ll talk about what to expect from the incoming Trump administration, the changing trade and tariff landscape – and what it all means for domestic steelmakers, service centers, and manufacturers. Don’t miss out! Mark your calendar for Jan. 15 at 11 am ET.