Since Thursday, when President Donald Trump signed his executive order calling for an analysis of the steel industry from a “national security” perspective, I have been swamped with emails and phone calls questioning what is going on and what do I think about the chances of something happening that will impact the amount of foreign […]
This morning Steel Dynamics (SDI) conducted their earnings conference call with analysts where they discussed their 1Q earnings and how they see the steel markets shaping up in the coming months. During the call, CEO Mark Millet told the analysts that the market will support “good prices” for the steel mills and he was not […]
Earlier today, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order requesting the U.S. Department of Commerce conduct an investigation under the Section 232 statutes (national security) to see if steel and imports of foreign steel are important to National Security interests of the United States. “We’re going to use American steel, we’re going to use American […]
With consolidated sales of $4.82 billion which is a 30 percent increase over 1Q 2016 and net earnings of $356.9 million it was a good 1st Quarter 2017 for the company. The company reported that the second quarter earnings should exceed that of 1st Quarter. The overall operating rates at the Nucor steel mills was […]
The following service center inventories data is based on the assumption that the MSCI data as presented is accurate on carbon flat rolled. From the MSCI data we apply a proprietary formula/model from which we can determine if flat rolled distributors are in an over-inventoried (excess) or under-inventories (deficit) situation. The importance of understanding the […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International) for their members. The HARDI conference call is dedicated to a better understanding of the galvanized steel market. The participants are wholesalers, service centers and manufacturing companies who either buy or sell galvanized sheet products used […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is providing two articles on the MSCI (Metal Service Center Institute) data for March 2017 for United States steel distributors in tonight’s newsletter. The first article is our normal analysis and the second article is a deeper dive analysis normally provided to our Premium level readers. Publisher, John Packard, also provides […]
At first glance this was a good report but that impression diminished on closer examination. Year over year the report was quite good but the number of shipping days increased by three and the normal March month over month shipment surge was very muted. Daily shipments increased by 1.7 percent from February. Since 2009 on […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
Licensed data for March was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 4th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. The total […]
AM Castle, a specialty metals company, announced it has reached an agreement with lenders to complete a comprehensive financial restructuring. The company posted a $114.1 million loss in FY 2016 compared to a loss of $218.8 million in 2015. Fourth quarter net sales totaled $113.7 million, down 14.2 percent compared to Q4 2015. Tons sold […]
April ferrous scrap prices continue to be in negotiation as the domestic mills try to drive down the buying prices while the dealers try to hold on because they know the mill order books are still good – especially on the sheet mills. We learned from one of our sources in the Ohio Valley the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During March our view […]
Early indications (and we should put special emphasis on the word “early”) are for ferrous scrap prices to trend slightly lower on shred and obsolete grades while prime grades (busheling/bundles) are expected to trade sideways due to strong demand from sheet mills. In March, prices for prime grades of scrap rose $60-$65 per gross ton […]
February service center shipments were almost exactly normal on a month/month basis though there were some bright spots. Daily shipments decreased by 0.6 percent from January. Since 2009 on average, February has decreased by 0.8 percent. Carbon steel shipments were 148,900 tons per day. The number of shipping days decreased from 21 to 20. Intake […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
Last Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to provide information for […]
Steel service centers in the United States have seen inventories reach a bottom after years of decline and appear to be slowly bouncing back (see graphic below). This appears to be true for all steel products combined as well as flat rolled, plate, and pipe & tube segments. During the month of February 2017, U.S. […]
Nucor Corporation increased its earnings guidance for first quarter 2017 to $1.10-$1.15 per diluted share, more than double its consolidated net earnings of $0.50 per diluted share in fourth quarter and well above analyst consensus of $0.69 EPS. Increased profitability is due to stronger performance of Nucor’s sheet and plate mills. Nucor said in its […]
We believe that miss-information (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through January 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
On Wednesday, Nucor Sheet Group announced a $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt) price increase on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steels. The base price increase was to take effect immediately and was the second $30 per ton increase announced since the beginning of the New Year. Since October 21, 2016 Nucor has made six price […]
Licensed data for February was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 7th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
Flat rolled steel order books have been helping push ferrous scrap prices higher for March delivery to the domestic steel mills. Steelmakers have paid $50 to $80 per gross ton higher prices than February for prime grades such as busheling and bundles. Sheet mills pushed their buying prices in order to get the supply of […]
Scrap prices moved higher as scrap dealers and the domestic steel mills finished their March negotiations. With prime grades of scrap settling at about twice the $30 per gross ton originally thought a couple weeks ago, the sheet mills have got a decision to make. Do they take prices up or have they raised prices […]
An antitrust lawsuit filed by indirect steel purchasers against ArcelorMittal USA, US Steel and other steel mills was dismissed in the US District Court of Northern Illinois last week. In 2008, Supreme Auto Transport LLC, based in Michigan, filed a complaint alleging that ArcelorMittal and others were among a group of steel producers who schemed […]
An Ontario judge dismissed on Monday motions to reopen bidding for Essar Steel Algoma. Essar Capital Limited requested that SISP be reopened to allow Essar Global to submit a bid. Essar Global has the support of USW Locals 2251 and 2724 and Algoma retirees who asked the court for permission to continue discussions with Essar […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued two new final determinations on Wednesday related to imports of steel products from China. The ITC determined that the U.S. industry is materially injured by the imports of carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate from China. Countervailing subsidy rates of 251.00% and antidumping margins of 68.2 percent will be […]