Steel Market Update (SMU) is providing two articles on the MSCI (Metal Service Center Institute) data for March 2017 for United States steel distributors in tonight’s newsletter. The first article is our normal analysis and the second article is a deeper dive analysis normally provided to our Premium level readers. Publisher, John Packard, also provides […]
At first glance this was a good report but that impression diminished on closer examination. Year over year the report was quite good but the number of shipping days increased by three and the normal March month over month shipment surge was very muted. Daily shipments increased by 1.7 percent from February. Since 2009 on […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
Licensed data for March was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 4th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. The total […]
AM Castle, a specialty metals company, announced it has reached an agreement with lenders to complete a comprehensive financial restructuring. The company posted a $114.1 million loss in FY 2016 compared to a loss of $218.8 million in 2015. Fourth quarter net sales totaled $113.7 million, down 14.2 percent compared to Q4 2015. Tons sold […]
April ferrous scrap prices continue to be in negotiation as the domestic mills try to drive down the buying prices while the dealers try to hold on because they know the mill order books are still good – especially on the sheet mills. We learned from one of our sources in the Ohio Valley the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During March our view […]
Early indications (and we should put special emphasis on the word “early”) are for ferrous scrap prices to trend slightly lower on shred and obsolete grades while prime grades (busheling/bundles) are expected to trade sideways due to strong demand from sheet mills. In March, prices for prime grades of scrap rose $60-$65 per gross ton […]
February service center shipments were almost exactly normal on a month/month basis though there were some bright spots. Daily shipments decreased by 0.6 percent from January. Since 2009 on average, February has decreased by 0.8 percent. Carbon steel shipments were 148,900 tons per day. The number of shipping days decreased from 21 to 20. Intake […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
Last Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to provide information for […]
Steel service centers in the United States have seen inventories reach a bottom after years of decline and appear to be slowly bouncing back (see graphic below). This appears to be true for all steel products combined as well as flat rolled, plate, and pipe & tube segments. During the month of February 2017, U.S. […]
Nucor Corporation increased its earnings guidance for first quarter 2017 to $1.10-$1.15 per diluted share, more than double its consolidated net earnings of $0.50 per diluted share in fourth quarter and well above analyst consensus of $0.69 EPS. Increased profitability is due to stronger performance of Nucor’s sheet and plate mills. Nucor said in its […]
We believe that miss-information (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through January 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
On Wednesday, Nucor Sheet Group announced a $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt) price increase on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steels. The base price increase was to take effect immediately and was the second $30 per ton increase announced since the beginning of the New Year. Since October 21, 2016 Nucor has made six price […]
Licensed data for February was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 7th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
Flat rolled steel order books have been helping push ferrous scrap prices higher for March delivery to the domestic steel mills. Steelmakers have paid $50 to $80 per gross ton higher prices than February for prime grades such as busheling and bundles. Sheet mills pushed their buying prices in order to get the supply of […]
Scrap prices moved higher as scrap dealers and the domestic steel mills finished their March negotiations. With prime grades of scrap settling at about twice the $30 per gross ton originally thought a couple weeks ago, the sheet mills have got a decision to make. Do they take prices up or have they raised prices […]
An antitrust lawsuit filed by indirect steel purchasers against ArcelorMittal USA, US Steel and other steel mills was dismissed in the US District Court of Northern Illinois last week. In 2008, Supreme Auto Transport LLC, based in Michigan, filed a complaint alleging that ArcelorMittal and others were among a group of steel producers who schemed […]
An Ontario judge dismissed on Monday motions to reopen bidding for Essar Steel Algoma. Essar Capital Limited requested that SISP be reopened to allow Essar Global to submit a bid. Essar Global has the support of USW Locals 2251 and 2724 and Algoma retirees who asked the court for permission to continue discussions with Essar […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued two new final determinations on Wednesday related to imports of steel products from China. The ITC determined that the U.S. industry is materially injured by the imports of carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate from China. Countervailing subsidy rates of 251.00% and antidumping margins of 68.2 percent will be […]
We are still early in the negotiation process for ferrous scrap pricing for the month of February. The expectation is for much higher than originally thought (sideways to +$30) a couple of weeks ago. SMU scrap sources are advising the Detroit market settled today at up $40 per gross ton on obsolete and shred grades […]
The rumors about March ferrous scrap prices have been flying ever since prices rebounded early in February from the initial down $10-$30 per gross ton we saw in the early negotiations. As the month of February continued scrap prices rebounded and, in some cases, returned to levels seen in January. As we prepared for March […]
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. On Monday Nucor began the flat rolled steel price increase announcement train as they, and just about every other flat rolled mill in the United States, came out with a $30 per ton increase. Steel buyers, however, were confused as to where spot base prices were […]
Three mills have made price increase announcements of $30 per ton on all flat rolled products produced by those mills. The three mills are Nucor, NLMK USA and USS/POSCO (UPI) on the West Coast. On Monday morning Nucor made it official and was the first mill to announced a $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt) price increase […]
January service center shipments were exceptional. There are times when we wish we weren’t so hung up on three month moving averages and this is one of them. Daily shipments increased by 29.9 percent from December. Since 2009 on average, January has increased 8.1 percent hence our enthusiasm for the latest data. Carbon steel shipments […]
Late last week the MSCI released their service center shipment and inventories data. Steel Market Update (SMU) provides detailed articles to both our Executive and Premium members about the MSCI data. One of the special articles we do for Premium only customers is our Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. This is a […]