SMU survey: Steel mill lead times mostly slipping
The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.
The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.
What are people in the steel marketplace talking about this week?
Domestic buyers of steel sheet said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.
US steel exports were flat from October to November, but November took the prize for the fewest monthly exports year to date in 2023.
There seems to be a growing consensus that the US sheet market has peaked at a high level and could begin losing ground from here. Whether declines happen quickly or whether sheet prices bop around at current levels for a few weeks more is the primary question.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fell noticeably this week for the first time since late September. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,025 per ton on average, down $25 per ton from last week. Cold-rolled (CR) coil was unchanged at $1,325 per ton.
Coming out of a strong fourth quarter, galvanized steel market participants are reporting an above-average start to January and are cautiously optimistic for 2024.
US service center flat-rolled steel inventories surged in December with the seasonal slowdown in shipments. At the end of December, service centers carried 64.8 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data, up from 54 days in November.
November’s shipments for domestic heating and cooling equipment shipments declined for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data released from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
Bloomberg has reported that Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might not close until 2025 – well after the Q2/Q3 2024 close date both companies have guided toward. That’s because a national security review of the deal ($14.9 billion if you include the USS debt Nippon Steel would assume) by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) could take longer than initially expected
The LME three-month price was moving down again on the morning of Jan. 12 and was last seen trading at $2,215 per metric ton (mt). We expect a test of the $2,200/mt support to be imminent. A break would be bearish as it could mean a complete reversal of the gains seen in December, although we still estimate that as being unlikely.
Active rigs in the US dipped slightly this week, while Canada's count increased for the second consecutive week, according to Baker Hughes.
It’s been a sloppy start to the year for domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and ferrous scrap markets. One of the loudest things to happen in HR this year might be something that didn’t happen at all. Namely, Nucor didn’t follow competitor Cleveland-Cliffs higher when Cliffs announced a price hike to start the year.
I expected that we’d start off January with prime scrap prices modestly up if for no other reason than industrial activity typically slows down over the holidays. And mills’ appetite for scrap typically increases in anticipation of stronger Q1 order activity.
Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices remain in the holding pattern they've been in since mid-December, according to SMU pricing archives.
Steel prices continued to move higher last month on the back of repeated mill price increases after tags reached a 2023 low of $645 per ton in late September. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices ended December at an average of $1,035 per ton ($51.75 per cwt), rising by $112 per ton during the month.
Domestic steel mill shipments increased in November vs. a year earlier, but fell month over month.
Flat rolled distributor Mill Steel Co. announced the appointment of a new CFO on Jan. 9.
I’d have been surprised if anyone told me just last week that the January scrap market might move lower. What we saw on Friday were offers. Not settlements. And no doubt there are still some twists and turns in store before we can say for sure which way scrap will go.
The International Trade Commission (ITC) held a hearing on Thursday, Jan. 4, to consider arguments for and against the imposition of antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVDs) on tin mill products from a handful of countries. Both sides made compelling arguments.
Active domestic rotary rigs dipped slightly this week, but Canada's firms increased their count significantly, according to Baker Hughes.
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects this past week, including purchasing practices, steel sheet prices, scrap, and the future market.
The LME aluminum 3-month price was moving further down on the morning of Jan. 5 and was last seen trading at $2,287 per metric ton (mt) as of this article’s writing, already down 6% from its recent peak. SHFE cash also concluded the first week of the year on a weaker foot. The cash contract […]
Steel mill lead times pulled back across the board this week but are still said to be at healthy levels, according to SMU's market survey this week.
Cleveland-Cliffs is now targeting base prices of $1,150 per ton for hot-rolled coil (HRC), according to a press release on Wednesday morning, Jan. 3.
Sheet prices were mixed in SMU’s first assessment of the market in the New Year.
November’s preliminary count shows US imports falling, but to a lesser degree than an earlier license count had suggested, according to the latest government figures.
We started 2023 with HRC spot pricing around $700 per ton and the third-month future (March ‘23) trading at $800/ton. That same future eventually settled at $1,059/ton - a $259/ton swing. Today, spot pricing is just shy of $1,100/ton for HRC, and the third-month future (March ‘24) settled at $1,091/ton. The clear takeaway: a lot can change over three months. And while future contracts are a valuable tool for hedging, they are a terrible predictor of price.
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects, including purchasing practices, steel sheet prices, scrap, and the future market. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.
Domestic steel mill shipments dipped year-to-date (YTD) through October from a year earlier, according to revised American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.