SMU Community Chat: Timna Tanners’ take on 2024
More supply coming online and an unchanging demand environment – two key themes for 2024 – could soon bring the steel sheet storm to a market near you.
More supply coming online and an unchanging demand environment – two key themes for 2024 – could soon bring the steel sheet storm to a market near you.
ArcelorMittal swung to a loss in the fourth quarter largely because of costs associated with a deadly coal mining disaster last year in Kazakhstan. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker sold its Kazakhstan operations in December and no longer owns and operates coal mines as a result of the move, according to comments released along with earnings data on Thursday.
Domestic steel shipments increased in December on-year but were down from the previous month, according to the latest data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
It was another steady drip lower, down $20/st to $980/st. In other words, the kind of on-and-off declines we’ve been seeing since the start of the year.
Sheet prices fell across the board this week as SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since November.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat. The chat will be on Wednesday, Feb. 7, at 11 a.m. ET. You can join the ~600 people who have already registered here.
At the final hour, the trade case investigating unfairly traded imports of tin mill products has been terminated.
SMU’s latest survey results make it clear that the sheet market has hit an inflection point and headed lower. But while some market participants think that sheet prices might bottom within the next month or so, others expect a more protracted downturn.
Rig counts in the US and Canada were mixed, with US totals slipping and Canadian counts moving higher week on week (w/w) for the week ended Feb. 2, Baker Hughes’ latest data shows.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat on Feb. 7.
The US Midwest premium was flat week over week (w/w) at 18.8–19.4¢/lb. Again, the premium has exhibited remarkably low levels of volatility and has yet to react to news in the geopolitical or macroeconomic spaces.
Much has happened since we last met on Jan. 4. Cleveland-Cliffs announced a price increase on Jan. 3, lifting the futures market in the morning only for it to finish the day $20-$30 per short ton (st) below those morning highs. On Jan. 4, the futures curve was down another $10-$28/st. And in my column for SMU that evening, I asked a question: Would those aggressive sellers be met with a short-squeeze forcing them to cover, or had the market peaked with the negative price action to start the year the proverbial canary in the coal mine?
I thought Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might become a political football in this year’s presidential election. Now there is little doubt that it will after Trump told reporters in Washington, D.C., earlier this week that he would “absolutely” block the transaction – and that he would do so “instantaneously.”
Steel mill lead times for sheet products saw substantial declines over the past two weeks, while production times for plate held steady during the month of January.
Norfolk Iron & Metal is installing a new Butech Bliss temper mill cut-to-length line at its Port of Catoosa processing facility near Tulsa, Okla.
Sheet prices were mixed this week, with hot-rolled (HR) coil unchanged but cold-rolled and coated prices down.
Nucor is optimistic about long-term activity from bridges and highways, semiconductor chip plants and renewable energy, but still sees some short-term challenges. The North Carolina-headquartered steelmaker expects the federal programs that support these megatrends “to add somewhere between 5 million to 8 million tons of incremental annual demand for steel over the next several years,” […]
With rising steelmaking capacity and relatively flat demand, industry analysts are predicting lower prices for sheet products this year.
Nucor Corp. reported a decline in profits during the fourth quarter due to lower pricing and volumes.
Rig counts in the US and Canada both notched week-on-week increases for the week ended Jan. 26, Baker Hughes’ latest data shows.
December’s import level was slightly lower than an earlier license count had suggested, resulting in December marking the second-slowest month for imports in 2023.
The 35th Annual Tampa Steel Conference starts in just a few days. As one of the premier domestic steel conferences, it’s the perfect way to kick off 2024. It’s not too late to register if you haven’t already done so, but make sure to book now!
U.S. Steel has idled its USS-UPI LLC subsidiary in Pittsburg, Calif., a company spokesperson confirmed. The idling happened in December, they said in an email to SMU.
Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI’s) top executive sees hot band demand remaining strong in 2024, which should support pricing.
JSW Steel USA has teamed up with Primetals Technologies to upgrade its slab casting capabilities at the company's Mingo Junction, Ohio, slab and hot-rolled sheet mill.
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week, marking the first week of consecutive declines for hot-rolled (HR) coil since September. SMU’s HR price now stands at $1,000 per short ton (st) on average, down $25/st from last week and down $45/st from the start of the year.
Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma Steel said its blast furnace could be down for approximately two weeks following an incident at its coke batteries over the weekend. “We expect some impact on shipments, the extent of which will depend on the timeline to resume blast furnace operations,” the Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based company said
This latest SMU steel market survey is a snapshot of a sheet market inflecting lower. A significant 43% of survey respondents said that the hot-rolled (HR) coil market has already peaked. Compare that to only 8% when we released our last steel market survey on Jan. 5.
We’re just a week away from the 35th annual Tampa Steel Conference! It’s one of the premier domestic steel conferences and the first can’t-miss event of 2024. If you haven’t already registered, there is still time but make sure to book now!
While oil and gas drilling in the US and Canada rose in the week ended Jan. 19, less drilling is happening than at this time last year, Baker Hughes’ latest data shows.