An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
Every month, Steel Market Update calculates whether flat rolled steel distributor’s inventories are in excess or a deficit based on our proprietary formula. The Metal Service Center Institute released April data late last week and, based on our analysis, we believe the “apparent deficit” to be 251,000 tons. This represents an improvement of 101,000 tons […]
Higher volumes increased Olympic Steel net sales 2.6 percent to $347 million in Q1 2014 from $338 million a year ago. Net sales increased sequentially by 19 percent despite adverse shipping conditions. Net income totaled $2.8 million, down from 5.16 million in 2013 Flat steel volume increased 3 percent y/y to 299,000 tons for the […]
Service centers and steel brokers within the secondary (non-prime) segment of the flat rolled industry are advising Steel Market Update that prices on secondary are rising just as quickly as prime. Production problems at a number of mills, coupled with logistics problems holding back shipments from some mill locations, has helped tighten inventories of vanilla […]
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum reversed course due to the price increase announcement led by ArcelorMittal and followed by virtually all of the domestic and Canadian steel mills. We moved the SMU Price Momentum Indicator first to Neutral and then a week later to Higher in response to the increase announcements and the fact that […]
We are beginning to see a new push away from a fragmented steel mill supply base as closures of capacity coupled with the recent acquisition of ThyssenKrupp Steel USA by ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Sumitomo Metals Corporation (AM/NS Calvert) are reducing the number of players and the tons in the game. Over the past two years we […]
Based on the most recent MSCI flat rolled steel data Steel Market Update has calculated that U.S. service centers dwindled their “Excess” inventories from +150,000 tons at the end of January to +28,000 tons at the end of February. Our forecast from last month was for service center excess to drop to +80,900 tons. So, […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update (SMU) began our early March flat rolled steel market analysis. We sent invitations to just under 600 companies associated with the industry. Of the companies responding 44 percent were manufacturing companies (end users), 40 percent were steel service centers/wholesalers (distributors), trading companies represented 6 percent of the […]
The domestic steel mills did not announce any flat rolled steel price increases during the month of February. The last price increase announcement was made by USS/POSCO to their West Coast customers on January 30th. The last announcement on the East Coast was ArcelorMittal Dofasco which adjusted prices to take into account the lost value […]
Tonight’s issue is a mouth full. There are times when events occur which need more than 300 words to address. And, in the steel industry, there can be many viewpoints on the same subject. OCTG is one of those subjects. I hope you found the three articles from David Phelps, Paul Lowrey and Peter Brebach. […]
On Monday, Steel Market Update revised our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. The adjustment means we anticipate flat rolled steel prices will move lower over the next 30 to 60 days. At the time of the change, SMU benchmark hot rolled coil was published at $660 per ton. The last adjustment to […]
Earnings reports are accompanied by conference calls which allow us to get some insight on what the steel leaders are thinking about in the industry. SMU decided to look at the comments by AK Steel, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and US Steel for ideas on where the steel industry is headed for 2014. All four of […]
Late last week Steel Market Update concluded our mid-January market survey of the flat rolled steel market in Canada and the United States. The survey is conducted by invitation only and is sent to slightly less than 600 companies. The breakout of the respondents was: 48 percent manufacturing companies, 42 percent service centers/wholesalers, 5 percent […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) produced their analysis of service center shipments and inventories as of the end of December 2013. According to the MSCI flat rolled inventories stood at 4,981,400 tons which represented a 2.6 month’s supply on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 2.1 months supply based on seasonally adjusted data. Steel Market […]
One of the interesting points brought out in the most recent flat rolled steel survey is distributors inventories are rising. According to the results from last week’s survey steel inventories rose to their highest levels since January 2013 and now stand at 2.35 months. MSCI data is due out later this week and SMU is […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month of December where it began, indicating higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 days. The domestic steel mills did not disappoint as they raised base price levels to $35.00/cwt on hot rolled and $40.50/cwt on cold rolled and coated (plus extras, FOB mill) for the mills […]
On Monday, December 16th we began collecting data for our last Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market analysis. The way the system works is over the years Steel Market Update (SMU) has vetted a number of companies (many of whom John Packard did business with in the past). Our current list has approximately 600 […]
Steel Market Update continues to enhance our proprietary service center inventory model which we call SMU Apparent Excess/Deficit. We are now forecasting service center inventories using our model and, for that reason, in the future we will move this data into the Premium Level within our website. Using our model shipments, shipments were up year-over-year […]
The other day Steel Market Update wrote an article about steel buyers anticipating a flat rolled steel price increase announcement out of the domestic mills prior to the end of the year. Not everyone is a believer that will occur and we got several emails and phone calls pointing out short lead times at a […]
After compiling the results from our most recent Steel Market Update survey, we found service center inventories have risen to an average of 2.21 months for mid-November, the highest figure since mid-July of this year. This is an improvement compared to the early-November survey, when inventories were measured at 2.04 months, the lowest figure since […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released their service center shipment and inventory data for the month of October 2013. Total steel shipments (all products) were reported to be 3,791,600 tons. October, which had 23 shipping days compared to September with 20 days, had a daily shipping rate of 164,900 tons down from September’s 169,000 […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those distributors participating in our twice monthly steel market survey to advise us how many months of flat rolled steel they have on hand. We do not pretend to possess the data base of the MSCI and we defer to their data base – especially in the case of the […]
SSAB Americas had sales of SEK 3,639 million ($575 million) in the third quarter of 2013 on shipments of 628 thousand tonnes (692,239 tons). Niche products accounted for 166 thousand tonnes (182,980 tons) or 26 percent of total shipments. In comparison, shipments were 16 percent higher year over year and 9 percent higher quarterly. Sales […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum increased sales 18.9 percent to $2.44 billion in the third quarter 2013 from $2.06 billion in third quarter 2012. Tons sold were up 31.3 percent year-over-year to 1.45 billion tons. Net income was $95.1 million, down 3.1 percent from $98.1 million in the third quarter of 2012 and up 17.4 percent from […]
Buyers are telling Steel Market Update (SMU) that there have been some spot price offers which were held through the end of this past week. Most, however, are informing us that those mills who publicly announced new pricing are asking for increases and holding the line. We don’t doubt that there could be some orders placed […]
Flat rolled steel service centers held 2.17 months of inventory on their floors, according to the results from our latest steel market survey completed on Thursday of last week. This is essentially unchanged from the 2.15 months measured at the beginning of the month and in line with the MSCI data reported at the end […]
According to just released Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) data, total steel inventories at the distributors as of the end of July were 7,642,600 tons. This is 12.2 percent below the 8,953,900 tons held by service centers at the end of July 2012. The daily shipment rate dropped to 157,500 tons per day (22 day […]
Based on the results from our steel survey conducted this past week, service center inventories dropped to 2.09 months and have been declining over the past couple of months. Steel Market Update does not weigh larger service center results any differently than smaller service centers. We defer to the MSCI data as being more complete. […]
Based on the results of our latest SMU steel market survey, service center flat rolled inventories (as of this week) dropped from 2.37/2.33 in January and early February to 2.19 months. We did hear from service centers during the survey process of their continued focus on lowering inventories from these levels. SMU considers large, medium […]
Written by: John Packard Steel Market Update did not move our Price Momentum Indicator out of Neutral where we have been “stuck” for the past 10 – now going on 11 weeks. The market lacks clear direction – or maybe a better way to view it is the market lacks personality. This is perhaps best […]