This week’s newsletters may seem a little “muted” compared to the past, this is due to my right hand man – Brett Linton – being on vacation. Brett is the one responsible for keeping track of all of the data points and graphics in both the newsletter and website. He is also responsible for crunching […]
Flat rolled steel prices continue to firm and many buyers are convinced there could be more price increases to come with a tightening foreign market and higher offers for foreign steel coupled with the expectation that ferrous scrap prices will increase by a minimum of $30 per gross ton for April delivery. SMU has been […]
There have been four price announcements on flat rolled steel beginning in early December 2015. The first increase was for $40 per ton followed by a succession of $30 per ton announcements. The total of the four announcements is $130 per ton or, $6.50/cwt. Looking at the galvanized markets, when the first price increase was […]
U.S. steel service centers shipped a total of 3,179,800 tons of steel products during the month of February 2016. Even with an extra day due to Leap Year total tonnage was down 4.6 percent over year ago levels. The 151,400 tons per day steel shipment rate was down from January’s 152,700 rate and well below […]
As part of our Premium level service, Steel Market Update (SMU) analyzes the service center shipment and inventory data and provides a short term forecast for carbon flat rolled steel shipments and inventories then we use our proprietary model to determine if distributor inventories are in Apparent Excess or a Deficit situation. Our forecast also […]
I will be at the AHR Expo on Monday of this week (January 25th). I will only be there for one day due to other conflicts on my schedule. If you are planning on attending and would like to meet with me, the best way to find me is either through text or a phone […]
I am asked quite often what the differences are between Premium and your Executive level memberships. Over the next couple of weeks I am going to try point out what Premium receives above and beyond the Executive newsletter and website access. There are a number of special reports produced by Steel Market Update which Premium […]
We ended the month of September recognizing that not only have steel prices been falling but the Momentum behind pricing turned negative during the month. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now pointing toward Lower prices to be seen in the coming month or longer. Sentiment, another Key Market Indicator, has been dropping as you […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released August distributor shipment and inventory data on Wednesday of this week. Total steel inventories remained essentially unchanged in August compared to July as the daily shipping rate declined by 3.8 percent. The biggest declines in shipments were attributed to carbon plate (-14.8 percent), structurals (-3.9 percent) and carbon […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) produces for our Premium level members a number of articles/analysis related to the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) data which is released on a monthly basis. One of the articles is our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit analysis. Our Apparent Excess/Deficit is the number of tons either over or under what […]
AK Steel blamed low prices due to high levels of unfairly traded imports for its net loss of $64 million for the second quarter of 2015. Net sales for the quarter totaled $1.69, down from $1.75 billion sequentially and $1.53 billion in Q2 2014. Average selling price of $931 per ton was down 7 percent […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast that June steel service center shipments of flat rolled steel would total 2,430,000 tons. The actual number, according to MSCI data, came in at 2,339,000 tons or 91,000 tons fewer than our forecast. The daily shipment rate for June, which is more accurate than keeping tabs on total month […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Now why did we go and do that? We have been stuck in a very tight trading range on most flat rolled steels since late April of this year. Benchmark hot rolled, which is used by most in the […]
Before the ink had dried on last month’s service center flat rolled inventory “Apparent Excess/Deficit” report and forecast we knew our forecast was being a bit too optimistic. This was pointed out to us in an email from a large service center who has been following our Apparent Excess since the beginning. “I read with […]
The steel industry has been preparing for a trade suit for well over a year. Those who buy steel, manufacturers, fabricators and steel service centers have had ample time to prepare for what many had been predicting as inevitable, a light flat rolled coated steel anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) suit. As we speak […]
Steel Market Update was analyzing data from our last flat rolled market survey just as the domestic mills began announcing price increases. We thought our readers might be interested in looking at the data with us and then guess as to whether the new price increases will “stick” or falter over time. In our opinion, […]
Last month Steel Market Update (SMU) forecast flat shipments for the month of April. We believed at that time that the U.S. flat rolled steel service centers would ship 108,600 tons per day or total flat rolled shipments of 2,389,200. According to the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI), which released shipment and inventory data for […]
As the publisher of Steel Market Update I get a lot of questions on a daily basis from readers and those who come across our website. Usually its about a piece of data or something having to do with one of our workshops. I got a question yesterday from someone who wanted to know what […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel market utilizing our proprietary questionnaire which is presented to approximately 600 companies for review. We receive well over 100 responses every time we canvass the market with the vast majority of respondents falling into either the manufacturing or service center/wholesaler […]
The American Institute for International Steel issued the following report on February 2015 steel imports into the United States. Imports, which declined in February compared to January, are 23 percent higher than at this time last year and one of the major reasons why service center inventories are taking so long to adjust. The higher […]
When it comes to the laws of supply and demand within the steel industry, many steel executives in their quarterly conference calls will reference steel service center inventories. As you look at the graphic below you can clearly see the trend change as steel service center inventories began to balloon in 4th Quarter 2014 and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
After negotiations were completed for February scrap pricing, the word being spread around the industry was to expect another drop in March, perhaps down $20 on most grades. However, the weather got brutal during the month and we are hearing that many dealers will not be able to complete deliveries on obsolete grades of ferrous […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
OK, I have been asked for my opinion as to what I think will happen to steel prices from this point. I have a sense that we may be entering a period of transition. A point where the price spreads between foreign and domestic are “reasonable” and the domestic steel industry can re-capture some of […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]