We managed to squeeze in an extra day off for our crew due to the Easter Holiday. So, if you were looking for a newsletter on Sunday evening – sorry, we skipped a day. But, we are making up for it today with an issue that if you printed it you could use as a […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
Steel service centers in the United States have seen inventories reach a bottom after years of decline and appear to be slowly bouncing back (see graphic below). This appears to be true for all steel products combined as well as flat rolled, plate, and pipe & tube segments. During the month of February 2017, U.S. […]
As the month of February comes to a close our SMU Price Momentum Indicator reverted to “Higher” from “Neutral.” However, we should be aware that the vast majority of the month saw our Price Momentum Indicator at “Neutral.” The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continued to show strength both as single data points as well […]
Late last week the MSCI released their service center shipment and inventories data. Steel Market Update (SMU) provides detailed articles to both our Executive and Premium members about the MSCI data. One of the special articles we do for Premium only customers is our Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. This is a […]
A large flat rolled steel service center shot me a note late on Friday advising a steel mill had told them earlier in the day to expect a $40 per ton price increase as soon as Monday of this week. At the same time the customer was told if scrap prices in March increase by […]
Service center flat rolled steel inventories grew in December based on our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. November shipments totaled 2,011,000 tons, inventories of flat rolled were 4,446,000 tons (MSCI numbers) and the Apparent Excess as of the end of November 2016 was 1,000 tons. Service centers were, according to the SMU model, in […]
We are but a few days away from the beginning of the New Year. We thought it prudent as we plan for 2017 that we take a look at what transpired with flat rolled steel prices over the course of the past 12 months. Because the market “bottomed” in December 2015 we have expanded our […]
As of late this afternoon www.Kitco.com was reporting zinc spot pricing around $1.22 per pound. Zinc recently reported prices not seen in the past 9 years and those of you buying galvanized and Galvalume steels need to be aware of how zinc is trading. The U.S. steel mills published new extras just as zinc pierced […]
Olympic Steel CEO Michael Siegal believes the election is affecting demand and said service center inventories are particularly low as a result. Olympic Steel executives on the earnings call noted that shipments were better in October than in September but fourth quarter is expected to be slow. Said Siegal, “As you know the fourth quarter […]
On Thursday (October 27, 2016) Cliffs Natural Resources conducted their 3rd Quarter 2016 earnings conference call with analysts. During the call Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves made statements regarding steel service centers which he reported as importing “illegal steel,” thus hurting the domestic steel industry. He also pointed out that service center inventories were “dangerously low” […]
Last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported September shipments and inventories for the U.S. flat rolled steel distributors. We have already produced a couple of articles for our Executive and Premium level members regarding the overall numbers. Today we are analyzing the MSCI data using our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model and […]
For those who have not been members for a long period of time or who may be new to Steel Market Update this section, my Final Thoughts, is the one area where I get to pontificate (provide my opinion) on subjects of interest to me. Today I want to briefly address the elephant in the […]
The conversation has begun regarding when flat rolled steel prices will end their slide and reverse course. Flat rolled steel prices have been in a steep decline since mid-June 2016 when benchmark hot rolled prices peaked at $635 per ton ($31.75/cwt, SMU index average) FOB domestic mill. Since then steel prices have retreated $145 per […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a review of the flat rolled steel market in our quest to better understand market trends which affect steel pricing and purchasing. We invite approximately 550-600 steel people to participate in our questionnaires. Those invited come from the manufacturing segment of the industry (approximately 45 to 50 […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
The following article is normally shared with just our Premium level members. Steel Market Update (SMU) has a proprietary product whereby we analyze the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipments and inventories at the end of each month. Based on our model, we come up with a number indicating whether service center […]
Flat rolled steel prices continued their slow slide as hot rolled offers below $600 per ton became commonplace. We have also seen lead times shrinking, demand in question and service center inventories grow. The combination of these and other factors caused SMU to adjust our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral where it had […]
Buyers and sellers of hot rolled steel are holding back on making any new offers (buy or sell) until the final determinations are announced on HRC later this week. According to Steel Market Update sources, hot rolled steel spot prices were ranging from a low of $590 per ton up to $630 per ton. Lead […]
SSAB Americas results in improve in second quarter due to higher volumes and prices. Sales were SEK 2.8 billion ($323 million) compared to SEK 2.4 billion ($277 million) in first quarter. Shipments improved 11 percent to 526,000 tonnes from 475,000 tonnes in Q1. The company reports good demand from steel service centers and the wind […]
Flat rolled steel inventories being held by U.S. steel service centers have moved from an Apparent Excess to a Deficit based on our analysis of the recently released data by the Metal Service Center institute (MSCI). We have been reporting on the reduction of the Apparent Excessive inventories being held at flat rolled steel distributors […]
Steel service centers based in the United States shipped and received fewer tons of steel products during the month of May, according to data just released by the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI). Shipments of all steel products totaled 3,204,800 net tons at a daily shipment rate of 152,600 tons. Last month the daily rate […]
Over the past week Steel Market Update has been of the opinion that flat rolled steel prices may be reaching levels where a “pause” may be appropriate. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing toward Higher flat rolled steel prices since December 11, 2015 (6 months). Many of the reasons which caused Steel Market […]
Once a year, Steel Market Update goes to New York City to rub shoulders and swap tales with about 400 of our closest steel friends. The initial attraction is the Steel Success Strategies conference hosted by World Steel Dynamics. Over the years a number of events have been formed by steel publications, futures markets and […]
SMU received a couple of inquiries about sheet shipments and one of our Premium customers had a specific question about the data presented in one of our Premium supplemental issues last week. We thought that we should share the data and then present at the end the question and our response for all of our […]
SMU Price Momentum continues to reflect the strength of steel mills as we expect prices to continue to rise over the next 30 days. Our Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing toward higher prices since early December 2015 (6 months and counting). Although our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index took a hit in May for both […]
U.S. flat rolled steel service centers were able to reduce their excess inventories by 222,000 tons, according to our proprietary analysis of the MSCI data released earlier this month. Our Apparent Excess/Deficit model has the distributors carrying a 46,000 ton excess as of the end of April. This is the first time we have seen […]
Whenever SMU speaks to steel buyers about flat rolled steel pricing cycles we inevitably hear about how the domestic steel mills have a tendency to over-correct to both the low and the high sides of the cycle (boom/bust). In the process there seems to be an assurance that market volatility will continue to be significant […]
There have been many comments made in the press recently regarding the opinions of analysts and consultants as to how long the current flat rolled price environment will last.The Pittsburgh Post published an article by Len Boselovic entitled: “Heard off the Street: Analysts: steel price hike may not last.” This article, which quotes one of […]
Double digit flat rolled steel price moves seem to be a weekly occurrence over the past few weeks. Steel mills are controlling their flat rolled steel order books and restricting spot tons. Those buyers who did not recognize things were changing back in the fall when Steel Market Update began pointing out the changes in […]