Tag: Section 232

There’s that concept from Adam Smith we all learn about in our Econ 101 classes: The Invisible Hand. A simple Google search will provide a refresh, but if memory serves I would classify it as something akin to “the market is magic” or “the market’s gonna market.” Today, obviously, we live in a mixed environment. There are a lot of hands out there, and they’re not too difficult to see. In this election year of 2024, one of the most visible hands out there probably belongs to the federal government.

Foreign cold-rolled (CR) coil remains notably less expensive than domestic product even with repeated tag declines across all regions, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.

I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains more expensive than offshore hot band but continues to move closer to parity as prices decline further. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months now remains near parity as tags abroad and stateside inch down.

SMU caught up with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, on Wednesday’s Community Chat. As one of the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturers in North America, his company is also one of the largest steel buyers in the region. This year alone, the Chicago-based company will buy roughly 2.8 million tons of steel. As such, Zekelman provides a great perspective on the steel industry and the markets it serves.

SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.

Foreign cold-rolled coil (CR) remains significantly less expensive than domestic product even as US tags continue to decline in a hurry, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains more expensive than offshore hot band, even as domestic prices remain under pressure. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months now remains near parity as tags abroad and stateside inch down.

US senators have introduced the "Stop Mexico’s Steel Surge Act," which seeks to reimpose 25% Section 232 tariffs on Mexican steel imports.

A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is now just about 5% more expensive than offshore hot band. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months is all but gone, and nearing parity.

The premium US hot-rolled coil (HRC) held over offshore product for roughly five months has nearly vanished. Domestic hot band prices continue to run downhill at a high rate, erasing a $300/st gap they had over imported HRC just two months ago.

Mexico has said it will place retaliatory steel tariffs on the United States if the US acts to reimpose Section 232 on its neighbor, according to an article in Reuters.

What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.

Foreign cold-rolled coil (CR) remains much less expensive than domestic product even as prices in the US have declined at a rapid pace over the past month, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.

This week, the World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial conference convenes in Abu Dhabi, UAE. There are many issues on the WTO’s plate. The question is whether any resolution of these matters is likely or even possible. One of the most important issues is the future of the dispute settlement system, which has been rendered impotent […]

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has voiced the United States’ unease at a marked increase in steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, and what she termed a lack of transparency about Mexican imports of the metals from third countries.

At SMU, our goal is not to tell you what to think but to keep the conversation going. We asked you in our survey this week what you were seeing when it comes to steel prices, demand, imports, and wildcards. In your own words, with minimal editing, here’s what some of you in the SMU community shared with us this week.

The premium US hot-rolled coil (HRC) held over offshore product is disappearing in a hurry. Domestic hot band prices continue to fall at a fast clip, erasing a nearly $300/st gap they had over imported HRC just two months ago. All told, US HRC prices are now 8.8% more expensive than imports. The premium is […]

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices moved lower again this week, remaining largely on a downtrend since mid-January. The result has caused domestic tags to lessen their price premium over imported products week on week (w/w).

What’s something going on in the market that no one is talking about? That’s a question on our survey, and was also posed to many who graced the stage at our Tampa Steel Conference. Perhaps another way to phrase that is “not talking about publicly” or connecting the dots of steel market chatter to find a uniting central issue. I thought one respondent to our survey really summed up the current moment: “Right now it is all politics.”

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were again lower this week, pushing the price premium domestic hot band carries over imported products lower vs. the prior week.

Former President Donald Trump discussed, if re-elected, placing a 60%-or-more tariff on all Chinese imports in an interview with Fox News on Sunday.

I participated in the 35th annual Tampa Steel Conference last week, a conclave of steel producers, consumers, traders, logisticians, and (a few) trade lawyers. I participated in a panel discussion concerning challenges in managing supply chains in these troubled times. Things appear to be heading in the wrong direction in this field. Supply chains were shown to be vulnerable to pandemics in 2020 and 2021, and, in 2022 and 2023, to regional conflicts and weather slowing or stopping the free movement of goods through trade bottlenecks (the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, the Bosporus, etc.)

Just like doing business in any part of the steel supply chain, there are risks and unknowns in trading steel. But trading companies play an important part, helping businesses navigate the risks and unknowns as they pop up.

I thought Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might become a political football in this year’s presidential election. Now there is little doubt that it will after Trump told reporters in Washington, D.C., earlier this week that he would “absolutely” block the transaction – and that he would do so “instantaneously.”

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices law little movement this week, a similar trend seen in offshore markets. Thus, the price premium domestic hot band carries over imported products was largely unchanged vs. the prior week.

Trade is not the major focus of the campaigns for the 2024 elections, either at the presidential or congressional level. But it is there as a live issue for business. And last August, former President Trump suggested a 10% tariff on virtually all imports as a “ring around the collar” of the US economy.

The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) outlined its praise for the US and EU extension on negotiations towards the proposed Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined further this week, easing to their lowest level since late November. And while domestic tags remain notably more expensive than offshore product, the premium has declined as imported hot band tags have moved higher.