The Biden Commerce Department just issued a broad rewrite of regulations dealing with a host of antidumping and countervailing duty issues. This week, I write about one of those issues, where it looks like Commerce made a wrong turn.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data was released on Friday, March 29, despite the stock market being closed for Good Friday. The year-over-year (y/y) PCE price index rose 2.5% in February, in line with market expectations but up from the 2.4% growth seen in January. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% y/y in February, also in line with expectations and slightly down from 2.9% in January.
April scrap prices came in sideways in the US, sources told SMU.
Sheet prices continue to inch higher. That’s a welcome development for many. But it’s also a far cry from the price surge many predicted about a month ago. Remember the theory that supported a spring surge: Sheet prices would soar on a combination of mill outages, stable-to-strong demand, restocking, mill price increases, and (potentially) trade action against Mexico as well.
It has been six weeks since Flack Global Metals wrote our last SMU column, and if you simply look at the futures curve from then (blue) until now (white), you could argue that very little has changed.
Nucor plans to publish a weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil beginning on Monday, April 8, according to a press release and letters to customers. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said its published HR price would be derived from “both quantitative and qualitative data” in the letter to customers on Thursday, April 4.
Several large buyers in the North came into the market on a sideways basis from prices paid in March. The development comes after recent speculation about what prices US-based steelmakers would pay for scrap for April shipments.
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market chatter.
On the eve of the April ferrous scrap buy, there is no firm consensus on the market’s direction. The safe predictions are “soft” sideways to “strong” sideways. That may mean down $10 per gross ton (gt) to up $10/gt.
You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.
Sheet prices moved higher this week for the second consecutive week, while plate prices ticked lower, according to our latest canvas of the steel market.
There is growing hope that the US scrap market has bottomed, according to industry sources. The steep price declines in March may have ushered in a floor because dealers say their stocks are a bit depleted. Their concern: that the flow of obsoletes could be cut severely with any further drop in prices. Is this wishful thinking, or do the fundamentals support the prediction of a market bottom? Let’s take a look!
Nucor intends to keep plate prices unchanged with the open of its May order book, according to a letter to customers dated Thursday, March 28. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the announcement would be effective with new orders received on Friday, March 29.
SMU latest' steel market survey paints the picture of sheet market that has hit bottom and begun to rebound. Lead times are extending again after stabilizing earlier this month. Mills are far less willing to negotiate lower sheet prices - even if there are still deals to be had on plate, according to the steel buyers we canvassed.
After stabilizing in our last check of the market, production times for flat-rolled steel have begun to push out further, according to steel buyers responding to SMU's market survey this week.
Steel buyers report that mills are less willing to talk price on new sheet orders than they were in weeks past, according to our most recent survey data. In contrast, mills’ willingness to negotiate on plate products remains relatively high, now at the second-highest rate of the year.
US hot-rolled coil and offshore hot band moved further away from parity this week as stateside prices have begun to move higher in response to mill increases.
Numerous mid-sized export yards in California and in Baja Mexico had little to no inventory on the ground last week because most had sold forward in the falling March market. Looking to secure their margins, they dropped prices across the scale. That resulted in lower-than-normal flows. “I’m sold out through mid-April and even longer if the flow doesn’t pick up” one yard owner said. That turned out to be the position of numerous West Coast suppliers.
Galvanized buyers reported solid demand and balanced inventories this week and were anticipating the sheet price increase announced by Cleveland-Cliffs on Wednesday.
The dollar premium cold-rolled coil (CRC) carries over hot-rolled coil (HRC) continues to expand according to our latest scope of the market.
A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, causing it to collapse. This has blocked sea lanes into and out of Baltimore port, which is the largest source of US seaborne thermal coal exports. The port usually exports 1–1.5 million metric tons (mt) of thermal coal per month. It is uncertain when sea shipping will be restored. But it could be several weeks or more. There are coal export terminals in Virginia, though diversion to these ports would raise costs.
Cleveland-Cliffs aims to increase sheet prices by $60 per short ton (st) and is seeking a new target base for hot-rolled coil (HRC) of $900/st. That's according to a press release circulated on Wednesday morning, March 27.
SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).
Sheet prices reversed course and moved higher this week, while plate priced remained flat, according to our latest canvas of the market.
Algoma Steel said in guidance on Monday that an unplanned outage at its blast furnace in January will “significantly” impact its fiscal fourth-quarter results.
Prices for pig iron in Brazil have increased despite efforts by US-based buyers to lower them.
Foreign cold-rolled (CR) coil remains notably less expensive than domestic product even with repeated tag declines across all regions, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.
APAC steel prices are likely to bottom out in the near term as seasonally higher demand coupled with production cuts may support prices. In the EU, prices are likely to remain under pressure, while fresh price increases are expected in the US. APAC steel prices are likely to bottom out in the near term In […]
As the month of March goes into the second half, the scrap community is trying to cope with the large drop in ferrous scrap earlier this month.
With Earth Day almost a month away, the world’s attention often turns to the manufacturing sector with calls for greener production processes.