The ISM Manufacturing Index retreated again in December. The Institute of Supply Management released their December report on January 2nd and after the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 59.0 to 58.7 in November and to 55.5 in December, however this is still equal to the average for the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the December 2014 steel import license data. As suspected the volume of requests dropped dramatically from the 4.0 million net ton pace we were seeing earlier in the month to 3.0+ million tons as of December 30th. December total steel imports (alloy and carbon) should be approximately 500,000 tons […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 29th, 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,840 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is a decrease of 35 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 37 to 1,499 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 340 rigs, […]
South Korea has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the U.S. decision to impose countervailing and antidumping on tariffs on steel pipe from South Korea. In 2013, South Korea exported 894,300 tons of OCTG products to the U.S., which U.S. steelmakers said were sold in the U.S. at artificially low prices. […]
The good news for the consumer is gasoline prices are closing in on $2.00 per gallon in many areas of the country. The bad news for the steel industry is the drop in oil prices means a slowdown in new drilling, one of the major users of hot rolled coil. The good news for buyers […]
This will be our last issue before Christmas and the last day of Hanukkah. We wish each and everyone one of you and your family all the best over the Holidays. I drove from Atlanta to Chicago over the weekend as we prepare to celebrate the Holidays with our son. One of the first gifts […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by December 15th was down to $55.96, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration, (EIA.) Brent closed at $61.09 on the same day. Natural gas delivered to […]
Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a slight improvement in business conditions over the next three months, according to the December survey by the Precision Metalforming Association. PMA says low fuel prices may help offset manufacturing costs. Low gas prices may also push surging auto sales into 2015. The December report follows: CLEVELAND, OH—December 18, 2014—According to […]
Production in November on a tons per day basis was 4.351 million tonnes, down from 4.411 in October. November had one fewer production day than October and the month’s total decreased from 136.363 million to 130.525 tons. Since January 2008 on average, November monthly production has decreased by 5.36 percent, this year November decreased by […]
As we approach the end of the year we begin to think about what is ahead of us for 2015. Will we see the massive amounts of foreign steel continue to flood the domestic (USA) market or will buyers back off as domestic prices slide closer to foreign offers? The expectation is for demand to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) released their Steel Buyers Sentiment Index this afternoon. Sentiment, which is a measure as to how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, rose 4 points from the beginning of December and is now at +56. Positive (+) […]
Worthington Industries reported an increase in sales for the second quarter of its 2015 fiscal year ending November 30, 2014. Sales of $871 million, however, could not offset weakness in the company’s Engineered Cabs and Oil & Gas sectors. Net earnings fell to $29.5 million from $44.2 million in the previous quarter but surpassed Q2 […]
We saw prices slipping in hot rolled and cold rolled steels over the past seven days. We are seeing offers on benchmark hot rolled below the $600 per ton level. One service center who is usually a coated only buyer told SMU that they purchased a small amount of hot rolled and they had offers […]
Below is the latest data issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through October 2014. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for October 2014 increased 5.2 percent, […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 12th, 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,893 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is a decrease of 27 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 29 to 1,546 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 346 rigs, […]
Today’s hot rolled, ferrous scrap and iron ore futures article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Along with HRC, iron ore and BUS trading. Andre also discusses the S&P 500, copper and crude […]
Railroad traffic increased in November for both carload and intermodal volume. Class 1 freight railroads carried 1,161,820 carloads in November, up 1.4 percent year-over-year, according the American Association of Railroads. Intermodal traffic in increased by 2.7 percent with a weekly average volume of 258,765 containers and trailers for the month, the highest level in history […]
For the past four days Steel Market Update (SMU) has been attending and speaking at the HARDI annual conference in San Antonio, Texas. One of the highlights of the conference were the presentations provided by Alan Beaulieu, one of the principal partners of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) and the chief economist for HARDI. […]
Total October steel imports were recently finalized by the US Department of Commerce at 4,441,271 net tons (4,029,058 metric tons), surpassing the previous high of 4,417,811 tons in August 1998. October had been on pace to be a high tonnage month, but previous preliminary data figures were a few thousand tons shy of breaking the […]
Low oil prices are giving truck carriers a break through diesel rates that are at their lowest level since February 2011. The average U.S. diesel price was $3.535/gallon as of December 8, 2014, a drop of $.34 from a year ago. Fuel savings add up during winter months when storms can cause delays and idling […]
Ports around the U.S. report steel shipments continue to be strong but congestion at the terminals remains a problem. In the Port of New Orleans iron and steel imports totaled 2.2 million tons in the first eight months of this year—up 84.8 percent from the same period in 2013. “We don’t have November numbers as […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 5th, 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,920 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is an increase of 3 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 1,575 rigs, gas rigs unchanged at 344 rigs, and […]
The following article on the hot rolled futures market comes to SMU from contributing writer Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading for Kataman Metals. Hot rolled coil futures have been quite inactive the past week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. As activity picks back up, it appears the next move will be lower. The forward […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. announced on Tuesday the purchased of Fox Metals and Alloys, Inc. for an undisclosed sum. Fox Metals, based in Houston, Texas, is a steel distributor specializing in alloy, carbon and stainless steel bar and plate products, primarily servicing OEMs and machine shops supporting the oil, gas and petrochemical industries. “The […]
It has now been five weeks (October 28th) since AK Steel became the first domestic steel mill to announce a price increase on flat rolled steel. The relatively modest $20 per ton move was, in many steel buyers’ opinions, meant to stem the decline in steel prices. At that point in time benchmark hot rolled […]
Steel Market Update has written a number of articles about the Keystone Pipeline. The pipeline has not been completed due to politics and environmental issues. We received an article from Peter Brebach, CEO of Iron Angels of Colorado which takes a look at the other side of the issue from an economic and environmental perspective: […]