The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports, both national and regional, are fundamental to our understanding of where the various steel consuming sectors are headed. In this analysis we are examining multiple data sources to try to develop a broad base of understanding. This data complements other more specific information on construction and manufacturing activities […]
According to Baker Hughes data from January 6, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 665 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 7 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 4 to 529 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 135 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
On a single data basis both our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index and Future Sentiment Index are at the record highs for our index. Current Sentiment, which is how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment, came in at +71 this week. […]
January scrap negotiations have begun between the domestic (USA & Canada) steel mills and their scrap suppliers. As one large scrap company put it, “Things are slow to develop today, but I’m anticipating some movement by day’s end. This market has been sort of like a junior high dance at this point, with the reluctant […]
Global manufacturing reached a three year high in December, finishing out the year with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7, up from 52.1 in November. After a flat first half, the second half of 2016 showed steady growth in the manufacturing sector. The December survey by IHS Markit indicates global manufacturing is growing at […]
It has been a busy (albeit short) week. I mentioned in my last newsletter that we are actively in the process of reviewing and building a new website. Beginning this evening, we have our website designers (K3 Technologies out of Atlanta) here in our Florida offices for the next few days so we can work […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 30, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 658 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 5 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 2 to 525 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 132 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Vehicle sales fell slightly to 17.87 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in November, though this still beat expectations. The strengthening job market is supporting vehicle sales and will continue to do so through next year as an average of 170,000 jobs are estimated to be added per month. On the other side […]
Earlier this week the U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data on foreign steel imports into the United States for the months of November and December. At this time both months appear poised to come in just under 3.0 million net tons. We are seeing some changes in the trends regarding various products. For […]
Worthington Industries announced second quarter 2017 net earnings (ending Nov. 30, 2016) were $46.6 million on $727.8 million in net sales. In comparison Q2 earnings were down from first quarter earnings of $65.6 million but double that of Q2 2016. “We had a good second quarter with overall improving results and solid year-over-year growth,” said […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. On December 12th Gaurav […]
US Steel indicated it may permanently close the Lorain Tubular No. 4 seamless mill, which has been idle since April 2015, as well as the No. 1 Electric-Weld Pipe Mill at Lone Star Tubular. USW Local 1104, in Lorain, Ohio, was notified of the plan on December 14. The 90-day notice does not mean that […]
We have an unusual hot rolled futures market article tonight which will be dealt with in two segments: First, we will have an article written by Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC as he deals with the financial markets (S&P 500), oil and copper and then he has some comments about an errant trade which […]
Nucor announced today that fourth quarter results are likely to be lower than third quarter due to lower margins in the steel mills segment, particularly at the company’s sheet mills, and seasonal slower activity. The raw materials segment is also expected to decline significantly, returning to a loss position due to lower pricing at Nucor’s […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through October 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for October 2016 decreased 1.9 percent […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 9, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 624 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 27 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 21 to 498 rigs, gas rigs up 6 to 125 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
As you think about your business and where you think benchmark hot rolled prices will be in 2017 and 2018 one of the areas you need to consider are the energy markets. The energy markets have been in the doldrums for the past few years due to low oil and natural gas prices. The net […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing Futures articles for […]
Early December logistic reports show no major problems in the shipping markets. Shipments on most transportation modes are expected to slow as the holiday season approaches. A new Secretary of Transportation has been appointed by President-elect Donald Trump. Elaine Cho, former Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Deputy Secretary of Transportation under […]
In November net job creation was 178,000 which was about in line with analysts’ expectations. The employment situation is strong enough for the Fed to likely go ahead with a target rate increase later this month. September employment numbers were revised up by 17,000 and October down by 19,000. Using a three month moving average […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 2, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 597 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 4 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 477 rigs, gas rigs up 1 to 119 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
The November Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is also known, leapt 7 points from October to register 57.6. The reading was the highest since January 2015 with four of the five components of the index showing improvement. On a three month moving average the index increased two points to 54.1. New orders […]
Steel Market Update went out to a couple of hundred steel buyers and executives today as we probe for information about flat rolled steel prices. At the same time we asked questions about price direction and demand. Tonight we will cover price direction (prior to AM increase announcement) and on Thursday we will cover their […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had an all-time high of 106.28 in December 2014 and trended down through June this year when it experienced a three month turnaround followed by a slight decline in October to 104.32. Figure […]
According to Baker Hughes data from November 23, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 593 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 5 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 474 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 118 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
This evening’s issue is a bit different than most Sunday evenings. With the Thanksgiving Holiday and most steel-related businesses being closed on Friday the amount of direct news was limited. We do have a couple of articles about new home sales. oil rigs and durable goods but, I spent a good portion of my 5 […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through September 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for September 2016 increased 16.1 percent […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated November 10th, Figure 1. The dollar has appreciated strongly since the election in anticipation of higher interest […]
Often with steel related economic statistics it’s useful to compare a given data stream with others which may or may not be causally related. This usually puts the steel data into context and shows whether a direction change is for real. In this piece we are comparing the price of Chicago shredded scrap with the […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. OPEC is in disarray. […]