John Packard is taking some time off… Among the many effects of the coronavirus on the steel market, no one is talking about Steelmageddon much these days. Announcements of new mills and capacity additions have been replaced by news of facility closures and furnace idlings. Concern has shifted from fears of overcapacity in the next […]
Steel prices saw further declines this week, but not a dramatic collapse. The benchmark price of hot rolled now averages around $560 per ton, down $5 from last week and down $50 from the mid-January high of $610. Most of the steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week expect […]
Despite a flurry of maintenance projects completed in the second half of 2019, several steelmakers are planning outages or idling of operations during the next few months. Steel producing mills have been designated as essential critical infrastructure and are not subject to state COVID-19 shutdowns. ArcelorMittal, however, is adjusting production by idling its IH-4 furnace at Indiana Harbor […]
U.S. Steel and Tenaris will adjust production of tubular products in the U.S. due to low oil prices and declining demand in the oil industry. U.S. Steel plans to idle tubular operations in Texas and Ohio, affecting 850 employees. “U.S. Steel advised employees that Lone Star Tubular Operations in Lone Star, Texas, and Lorain Tubular Operations in […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor CRU has massively downgraded forecast GDP growth in China to 1-2 percent for 2020 and we now expect the USA and Eurozone to fall into recession. Global GDP growth is now expected to be 1 percent for the year, an effective global recession. While economic […]
In the past week, iron ore saw its biggest drop of the year as prices fell by nearly $10 /t. The main reason for the fall was an escalation of Covid-19 cases outside of China, which caused concerns of iron ore demand in key steelmaking regions such as Europe and northeast Asia. At the same […]
Commercial Metals Company reported a strong second quarter for fiscal year 2020 ending Feb. 29. The Americas Mills segment achieved record second-quarter shipment levels while the International Mill had the highest shipment level for second quarter in 12 years. Earnings for the quarter were $63.6 million on net sales of $1.3 billion. Gross margins jumped […]
U.S. Steel’s performance in the first quarter of 2020 was better than expected with adjusted EBITDA projected at $30 million. “Our Flat-rolled segment results are expected to be better than anticipated as strong operating performance across our footprint, continued cost improvement, and seasonally strong shipment volumes more than offset the typical seasonality of mining,” said […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
Distributors supplying galvanized steel to the HVAC market report that demand and prices have remained surprisingly resilient so far, but they fear it’s only a matter of time before their business feels the full effect of the coronavirus crisis. “Your business is going to change. We are in the very early part of that change,” […]
The West Texas Intermediate crude price has fallen through $30 per barrel for the first time since September 2003. Normally our price data comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), but their data is not keeping up with today’s collapsing market. Their latest was March 6 when they published a price of $42.24 per barrel […]
Flat Rolled = 46.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 49 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled As prices eroded in February, service centers further reduced their flat rolled inventories 4.6 percent month on month by month’s end, according to adjusted February data compared with January’s final. With 20 shipping days in February compared to […]
Steel prices are as unpredictable as the spread of a rogue virus, but one symptom of COVID-19 is likely to be lower steel prices. As of this writing on March 13, the price of flat rolled steel products had yet to see much effect from the global panic over the coronavirus. Steel Market Update’s latest […]
Active U.S. gas and oil rigs slightly declined this past week, while Canadian rigs moderately declined following their annual trend, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. […]
By CRU Analyst Arshiya Sibia and Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Current information from our China team shows that steel demand is closely tracking our base case forecast for the impact of Covid-19, though steel production remains slightly higher than we had forecast. While our forecast was for steel demand to return […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s March Steel Sheet Products Monitor Covid-19, the novel coronavirus, has severely disrupted China’s economy. While new cases in China have slowed, thanks particularly to a historically significant containment strategy, Covid-19 has moved on to other countries. These include Italy, Iran and South Korea, but also other areas […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose slightly by 1.3 percent m/m to 206.4 (see chart). While this is broadly stable it bucked the trend compared to steel markets, which came under relatively more price pressure. Structurally, most markets were similar in condition to […]
Steel prices saw only small movement this week, with Galvalume up a bit and plate down a bit. We don’t expect that to be the case moving forward as the market really begins to feel the effects of the coronavirus on the economy and oil prices. In the meantime, Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicators […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, additional analysis by Ippolito Tarabini and Will Young The oil market is currently facing a large degree of uncertainty. Oil prices could feasibly remain around $40/bbl for a significant period of time. Three key judgements will determine CRU’s oil price forecast for 2020: (I) the extent to which […]
Covid-19 continues to spread globally, now detected in at least 103 countries. More than 80,000 cases have been reported in the epicenter of China and worldwide more than 114,500 people have been infected. The number of deaths reported has jumped to over 4,000. Testing for the virus has been slow in the U.S. as the […]
The world is changing in nanoseconds before our eyes. Did anyone think the whole country of Italy would be restricted/quarantined a few weeks back? Yesterday, Saudi Arabia decided to go to war with Russia over the price of oil, and voila the price drops 30 percent in one day. The U.S. has hardly begun testing […]
The coronavirus has begun to affect business in the United States, according to the latest Federal Reserve “Beige Book.” The economy is moving forward at a modest to moderate pace, but growth is uneven. The virus appears to be negatively impacting travel and tourism in the U.S., which showed only moderate to flat growth in […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Two pieces of news have led us to lower our global forecasts for 2020. First, disruptions caused by the Covid-19 epidemic are expected to lead to a sharp downturn in near-term global growth, followed by a sharp recovery later in the year. […]
Construction spending increased 1.8 percent to $1.369 trillion in January, according to a new analysis of federal data by the Associated General Contractors of America. “Public spending on infrastructure, along with single-family housing, was exceptionally robust in January,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist. “While overall economic conditions remain favorable, future construction spending levels […]
Active U.S. and Canadian rig counts declined slightly this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 1 to 790, with oil rigs […]
John Packard is traveling… The mills announced another $40 increase in flat rolled prices this week in the hopes of reversing the recent downturn in steel prices. Instead of an increase, ArcelorMittal released minimum base prices of $620 for hot rolled and $820 for cold rolled and coated. Steel Market Update puts the current benchmark […]
International OCTG producer Tenaris had net sales of $7.3 billion in 2019, a 5 percent decrease from 2018 that reflected lower drilling activity in Canada and the U.S. and lower sales in the Middle East and Africa. Net income fell 16 percent to $731 million. Fourth-quarter North American tubular sales increased 1 percent to $779 million […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Oil and gas prices declined from our previous update. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., was $49.59 on Feb. 10, down from $58.17/ barrel in […]
Steel prices finished 2019 on an upward trajectory, giving the market hope for a stronger 2020. That trend proved short-lived, however, as prices stalled in January and February, leaving both buyers and sellers wondering what to expect in the weeks and months ahead. Steel prices rose in November and December on a series of price […]