By CRU Senior Cost Analyst Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Covid-19 has spread across the world at alarming rates. As of March 28, the pandemic has reached 177 countries and shows little sign of letting up. When fighting a global health and economic crisis unlike anything ever seen before, there will be no winners—only […]
Steel Market Update’s monthly analysis of Key Market Indicators has done a good job of anticipating the ups and downs of the steel market in the past, but the economic data currently available seriously lags the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Only 3 of 36 indicators in this month’s report have even begun […]
We’re all saturated with news of the employment disaster caused by the coronavirus, but to look at the long-term picture graphically is still shocking. Figure 1 shows the three-month moving average (3MMA) of the number of jobs created or lost through April since 2005 as the brown bars and the total number employed as the […]
CRU is forecasting that North American steel sheet prices will find a bottom sometime this summer, but will remain volatile while supply and demand gradually rebalance as the coronavirus crisis subsides. CRU projects steel consumption will decline by 22 percent this year as a result of virus-related shutdowns in automotive and other key manufacturing industries. […]
Schnitzer Steel Industries, a metals recycler and long products producer, posted revenue of $439 million for the second quarter of FY 2020. Net income was $4.5 million for the quarter, improving from a $7 million loss in Q1 but down significantly from income of $13 million in Q2 2019. Autos and Metals Recycling achieved operating […]
SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors (davidfeldstein@rocktradingadvisors.com). In addition to market analysis, RTA provides price risk management not only for ferrous products, but also base metals, energy and interest rates. RTA also trains sales staff and creates the infrastructure necessary for firms to offer their customers fixed pricing on physical sales. […]
A sharp decline in new orders and production drove the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI into contraction in March, falling to 49.1 from February’s reading of 50.1 percent. “The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management. New orders […]
Today we took our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled steel to Lower from Neutral. We are clearly seeing an erosion in pricing, which is expected to continue over the near term. The economy is heading into recession. Key indicators are pointing toward a slowdown in construction as states and local municipalities mandate construction projects […]
Today we took our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled steel to Lower from Neutral. We are clearly seeing an erosion in pricing, which is expected to continue over the near term. The economy is heading into recession. Key indicators are pointing toward a slowdown in construction as states and local municipalities mandate construction projects […]
Active U.S. and Canadian drill rigs declined this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 44 to 728, with oil rigs down […]
Wholesalers in different parts of the country tell a different story about how the coronavirus restrictions are impacting their businesses. In one sense, the virus is picking winners and losers by geography. In a conference call this morning, members of the Heating, Air Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International compared notes on their experiences in dealing […]
By CRU Credit Research Analyst Eduardo Tinti, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Last week iron ore prices increased, supported by news of mining bans in Canada and South Africa before being pulled down due to the worsening global demand outlook after the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led governments around the world to adopt […]
The COVID-19 crisis caused a spike in truck rates in March as vans and reefers worked to replenish retail stocks and move essential supplies. DAT Trendlines said rates are likely to fall in the coming weeks, however, as fewer load postings occur. Van and reefer rates are expected to stay elevated, whereas flatbed rates and […]
We are in uncharted waters. The key is not to panic. Learn to separate fact from rumor. I repeat, learn to separate fact from the rumors that tend to envelope this industry. For example: The “rumor” is the domestic steel mills are getting huge order cancellations. Is that a fact or is it conjecture based […]
U.S. Steel announced on Friday a series of aggressive actions to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus and significant demand changes in the oil and gas industry. Flat-rolled: Gary Works—U.S. Steel will idle the #4 blast furnace at Gary Works immediately, moving up a 48-day outage originally planned for April. The scope of the planned […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Overview March 2020 The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the “end game” has fueled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU is now forecasting a global recession in 2020; […]
Service centers polled by Steel Market Update this week reported layoffs and sales declines expected to range from 30-70 percent. Steel orders are being canceled or delayed at most companies as steps to fight the coronavirus take a toll on regional economies across the country. Following are some executives’ comments: “We have not had customers […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel This month HR physical prices as reflected by the index basically started at $560/ST and rose $20-plus to hold, then fell […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel This month HR physical prices as reflected by the index basically started at $560/ST and rose $20-plus to hold, then fell […]
The American Institute for International Steel is asking the Supreme Court to hear its challenge to the constitutionality of Section 232 following the loss of two appeals in the lower courts. “We are heartened that the Court of International Trade recognized that Section 232, in the court’s words, ‘seem[s] to invite the President to regulate […]
John Packard is taking some time off… Among the many effects of the coronavirus on the steel market, no one is talking about Steelmageddon much these days. Announcements of new mills and capacity additions have been replaced by news of facility closures and furnace idlings. Concern has shifted from fears of overcapacity in the next […]
Steel prices saw further declines this week, but not a dramatic collapse. The benchmark price of hot rolled now averages around $560 per ton, down $5 from last week and down $50 from the mid-January high of $610. Most of the steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week expect […]
Despite a flurry of maintenance projects completed in the second half of 2019, several steelmakers are planning outages or idling of operations during the next few months. Steel producing mills have been designated as essential critical infrastructure and are not subject to state COVID-19 shutdowns. ArcelorMittal, however, is adjusting production by idling its IH-4 furnace at Indiana Harbor […]
U.S. Steel and Tenaris will adjust production of tubular products in the U.S. due to low oil prices and declining demand in the oil industry. U.S. Steel plans to idle tubular operations in Texas and Ohio, affecting 850 employees. “U.S. Steel advised employees that Lone Star Tubular Operations in Lone Star, Texas, and Lorain Tubular Operations in […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor CRU has massively downgraded forecast GDP growth in China to 1-2 percent for 2020 and we now expect the USA and Eurozone to fall into recession. Global GDP growth is now expected to be 1 percent for the year, an effective global recession. While economic […]
In the past week, iron ore saw its biggest drop of the year as prices fell by nearly $10 /t. The main reason for the fall was an escalation of Covid-19 cases outside of China, which caused concerns of iron ore demand in key steelmaking regions such as Europe and northeast Asia. At the same […]
Commercial Metals Company reported a strong second quarter for fiscal year 2020 ending Feb. 29. The Americas Mills segment achieved record second-quarter shipment levels while the International Mill had the highest shipment level for second quarter in 12 years. Earnings for the quarter were $63.6 million on net sales of $1.3 billion. Gross margins jumped […]
U.S. Steel’s performance in the first quarter of 2020 was better than expected with adjusted EBITDA projected at $30 million. “Our Flat-rolled segment results are expected to be better than anticipated as strong operating performance across our footprint, continued cost improvement, and seasonally strong shipment volumes more than offset the typical seasonality of mining,” said […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
Distributors supplying galvanized steel to the HVAC market report that demand and prices have remained surprisingly resilient so far, but they fear it’s only a matter of time before their business feels the full effect of the coronavirus crisis. “Your business is going to change. We are in the very early part of that change,” […]