Let's take a collective deep breath ::in:: and ::out::... And we're back. But where exactly are we? Are steel prices going up or down? Is demand really decelerating or is it an illusion? How is the market navigating the new mill pricing mechanisms?
Nucor moved its published consumer spot price (CSP) up again this week.
Nucor’s Consumer Spot Price (CSP), a legitimate mill offer price, is a potential disruptor to North American steel sheet commercial and procurement strategies. We will dive into the details of what we think the CSP is and why we believe it is a potential disruption to how the North American sheet market operates.
Here’s something I didn’t expect to see this week: SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest point since August 2020.
Sideways and range-bound describes the US steel derivatives market over the past week, though the monthly picture shows a more notable decline in front-end flat prices. Week-over-week saw the June futures contract firm slightly, from $770 per short ton (st) to $780/st as of Thursday, May 23’s provisional close. However, the contract was down by […]
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking at least $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil with the opening of its July order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the move was effective immediately in a letter to customers on Thursday, May 23. Recall that Cliffs announced in April that it would publish a monthly HR price. The […]
Nucor upped its published consumer spot price (CSP) this week.
The last time we were together on April 18, the June hot-rolled coil (HRC) future was sitting around the $800 support level where the May future found a bottom in mid-February.
Veteran StoneX futures broker Spencer Johnson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 29, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.
SMU surveyed our market contacts this week about steel prices, demand, and the overall marketplace. Below are some of the buyers' responses in their own words to help you get a feel for current and future market conditions. Demand is a big topic of discussion currently. Is it steady, falling, or on the upswing with summer construction heating up? As you can see from the answers below, it depends on who you ask. One buyer’s response sums it up pretty well: “I still see the marketplace as soft/stable with some segments busy, while others tread water.”
Cleveland-Cliffs’ Lourenco Goncalves thinks trade measures announced by the US government on Tuesday against China were just the opening salvo in a series of trade actions. Case in point: The Biden administration targeted China’s “unfair” trade policies with additional tariffs on an array of Chinese-made goods - including steel, aluminum, and EVs.
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
Steel prices were overall mixed this week, according to our latest check on the market. Sheet prices were flat to down, while plate prices inched up. SMU indices on hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized are now down to the lowest levels seen since November.
Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners cautioned clients about the darkening clouds of a brewing steel sheet storm in the company's Basic Materials Weekly Webcast on Monday. “This one we’ve been talking about for a while, and we feel like the theme is coalescing here,” she said.
Nucor chose to hold its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil steady this week after stunning the market last week with a significant price decline. The steelmaker said in a letter to customers on Monday morning that its $760-per-short-ton (st) CSP base price for HR coil is effective immediately. The price is unchanged from the CSP announced on May 6 but down $65/st from $825/st April 29.
What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) appropriated more than $4 billion to the General Services Administration (GSA) and Federal Highways Administration (FHWA) for “Buy Clean” programs. The statute makes clear that GSA and FHWA purchases under these programs are limited to those with “substantially lower” emissions. There is no ambiguity in that requirement. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has defined “substantially lower” to mean products with the lowest 20% of embodied emissions when compared to similar materials.
Nucor said EVP Douglas J. Jellison plans to retire on June 8 after more than 33 years with the company. Randy J. Spicer will be promoted to EVP effective May 12.
Stelco reported a positive start to 2024 in its first-quarter earnings report on Thursday. And with steady demand and a stable market, the Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker is optimistic for the remainder of the year.
Majestic Steel announced the completion of its flagship Majestic Steel Arkansas facility in Blytheville on the campus of Nucor Steel Hickman.
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)
Sheet prices fell across the board this week – largely in response to Nucor’s $65-per-short-ton price cut for hot-rolled (HR) coil on Monday morning. SMU’s HR coil price is $780/st on average, a $35/st decrease week over week (w/w). Our average cold-rolled coil price is $1,090/st (down $30/st w/w). Our galvanized base price is $1,100/st […]
When we were asked to provide some additional commentary to SMU about the futures markets for flat rolled, our only reluctance to contribute was rooted merely in the fact that SMU (1) already offers an excellent array of authors on this topic and (2) a concern regarding what new ground could be covered that hasn’t already been discussed to death on this issue. Thankfully, however, Nucor has offered up something we can describe, without hyperbole, as simply revolutionary for spot pricing in flat rolled - a development that we simply could not resist commenting on with respect to its probable impacts on the futures market.
Nucor started off May with a bang, dropping its weekly base spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil by $65 per short ton (st) this week.
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Nucor broke ground on a new galvanizing line at its Nucor Steel Berkeley sheet mill in Huger, S.C., on Thursday, May 2.
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
“One thing we know for certain, however, is that when we write our next column, things will have certainly shaken loose.” – Daniel Doderer, April 4, 2024. Above is a good reminder that whenever someone is “certain” of anything, you should probably look at that line of thinking with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Northwest Pipe’s profits more than doubled in the first quarter on-year, as the company expects a strong remainder of the year in both its steel pressure pipe and precast segments.
Russel Metals’ earnings fell in the first quarter, but the Toronto-based metals distributor sees steel prices stabilizing in the near term and staying above historical averages.