The International Monetary Fund updates its World Economic Outlook in April and October each year. The IMF has increased its forecast of U.S. GDP growth in 2020, but decreased it in each year 2021 through 2023 with no change in 2024. The opening statement of the IMF’s WEO, released Oct. 15, begins as follows: “The […]
The official economic statistics out of China show a decline in GDP to a level slightly lower than the depths of the global recession in 2009. China’s share of global steel production was 55.9 percent in August. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed […]
We saw modest movement in hot rolled this week as our survey respondents, both manufacturing and service centers, were consistent in reporting a decrease in the upper end of our range while holding the line at the bottom. As we reviewed the data, the vast majority of buyers were reporting numbers in the $460-$480 range […]
Steel price volatility was persistent in 2019, said CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores at the FMA/ASD Executive Networking Series held in Pittsburgh last week. U.S. economic growth was below the historical trend throughout 2019, but has improved since April, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Activity in two key steel sectors, fabricated metal products and […]
Nucor reported a decline in financial results as expected for the third quarter of 2019. Net earnings were $275 million, down from $386.4 million in Q2 and $676.7 million in Q3 2018. Consolidated net sales fell 7 percent from the previous quarter to $5.46 billion. Steel shipments to outside customers declined 7 percent from last […]
Based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of 10 indicators, U.S. manufacturing output is now contracting and articles manufactured from iron and steel are down by 6.1 percent year over year. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. In data released in […]
Economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most of the U.S. in September and early October. Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts in the South and West were generally more upbeat than the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity edged lower as firms cited persistent […]
There was much discussion at the NASA conference and in the wake of the conference regarding scrap pricing and where prices are headed for the month of November. The discussion on scrap has been a moving target over the past week or two. We checked with some of our sources earlier this month and we […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level in mid-October—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering: Have prices hit bottom? Is it time to replenish inventories? Flat rolled steel prices took a steep dive last month, […]
The World Steel Association is relatively bullish on steel demand in its October Short Range Outlook despite global economic challenges. Global steel demand will grow by 3.9 percent to 1,775.0 million metric tons in 2019 and will grow by another 1.7 percent in 2020, reaching 1,805.7 million metric tons. Steel demand in China is expected […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran U.S. steel sheet prices have fallen faster in early Q4 than initially expected, as lower demand levels, economic uncertainty and another $30-40 /l.ton decrease in scrap prices in October guided steel prices down. The CRU Midwest HR coil price assessment on Oct. 16 was $507 /s.ton, down $64 from […]
Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett enthusiastically spoke of the new steel mill planned for Sinton, Texas, during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. “We are excited about our Sinton, Texas, flat roll steel mill project, and the associated long-term value creation it will bring through geographic and value-added product diversification. This facility is designed to have […]
Steel Market Update has to admit 2019 has been an unusual year as we have seen two “dead cat bounces” already and we may be about to live through a third in the coming weeks. Why do we believe flat rolled prices are about to reverse course? Because of the data we have been gathering […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Demand for sheet products spiked to over five million tons in August for the first time since August last year, though flat rolled demand remains tepid. Construction expenditures are softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment […]
Business activity in New York State grew slightly in October but was generally sluggish. The October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index gained two points to register 4.0. The new orders index was unchanged at 3.5, indicating a slight Improvement. Shipments rose 7 points to 13.0 after falling to a three-year low last month. Unfilled […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week reveals that many buyers are leaning pessimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter. The majority responding to SMU’s questionnaire expect demand to continue weakening, prices to continue declining and growth to remain flat into the fourth quarter and possibly beyond. Demand SMU asked: At […]
Negotiations continued between the United Auto Workers and General Motors on Saturday afternoon. On Friday, the UAW presented a counter to the proposal GM submitted on Monday. Recent comments by the union hint that a possible tentative agreement may be in the works. “A short time ago, today, Friday, Oct. 11, 2019, we counterproposed to […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores The North American sheet market has taken a turn for the worse. At a time when sheet demand and prices have already been stunted by a weaker trend of industrial growth and sheet demand, two recent events are only now starting to affect sheet prices: an on-going strike at […]
U.S. Steel unrolled a new operating model on Tuesday that is expected to deliver $200 million of annual fixed cost savings by 2022. The new model includes a realignment of the company’s leadership team. The changes will be effective Jan. 1, 2020, and closely follow the recently announced investment in Big River Steel. “Our enhanced […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for August, released Oct. 1, shows total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the months June, July and August, total construction declined for the first time since November 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Commerce data. At SMU, […]
Job creation in September continued at a lackluster pace and the details signal a slowdown in steel consumption. In September, 7,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 2,000 jobs. About 114,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government gained 22,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and […]
Census Bureau data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) are most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on […]
The rate of job creation in September slowed to 136,000, but the details of job cuts and job openings continue to be historically very positive, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in September declined to 136,000 from an upwardly revised 168,000 in […]
Lack of demand for ferrous scrap, especially in the Ohio Valley and Chicago market, forced prices down another $30-40/GT for October, on top of a similar decline in September, sources tell Steel Market Update. Scrap prices are their lowest in years, dropping eight out of the last 10 months. Shred prices today are around $215/GT, […]
Worthington Industries has acquired Heidtman Steel Products’ pickling and slitting facility in Cleveland. As part of the sale, the Cleveland operation under Worthington will continue to service Heidtman customers through a toll processing agreement. “Heidtman’s Cleveland operation is a great addition to our steel business, further expanding our value-added steel processing capacity,” said Worthington Industries […]
The United Auto Workers’ strike against General Motors is in its 23rd day. After the union rejected a counterproposal from GM on Sunday, UAW-GM Vice President Terry DIttes commented, “These negotiations have taken a turn for the worse.” “We, in this union, could not be more disappointed with General Motors,” he said, adding that the […]
SMU continues to pick up negative vibes through the analysis we currently are actively conducting on the flat rolled and plate steel markets. There is obviously something going on that is concerning buyers and sellers of steel. At the same time, one of the steel mills told me today that even though prices on their […]
The good news is that the Commerce Department has finally approved Priefert Manufacturing’s request to exclude one of its products from the Section 232 tariff. The bad news is that the company still may never see a refund of the $700,000 it has paid out in unfair duties. Priefert Manufacturing is a service center and […]
The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 47.2 for August indicating a decline in planning activity for nonresidential construction. The national score for new design contracts was also below the neutral point of 50 at 47.9, a rare occurrence for the two scores. Having both indexes in contraction means […]