Financial Markets Two weeks back we were 1640 on SP 500 and technically it looked like we were headed to 1550-1560 zone as part of a larger retracement. Well the market has dumbfounded the chartists again, and we have since rebounded to today’s level of 1682. We are likely headed now to the 1770-80 zone […]
Job creation at 169,000 in August was a little below expectations but the downward revision to June and July of 74,000 was very disappointing. Employment gains continue to be heavily slanted towards service industries. In August production industries added, 18,000 jobs, service industries added 151,000 jobs, (Table 1). Included in the service number is government […]
This past week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our beginning of September steel market survey. Of those responding to last week’s survey 52 percent were manufacturing companies, 35 percent steel service centers and the balance were composed of steel mills (4 percent), trading companies (4 percent), toll processors (3 percent) and suppliers to the industry […]
The Global PMI composite index increased to 51.7 for the month of August, up from the 50.8 reading in July. This slight yet meaningful increase marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing production increased for the tenth consecutive month, with the rate of growth at the highest level recorded since […]
Sentiment Continues to Trend Higher (more optimistic) Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured earlier today at +40, down 3 points from the middle of August and well within the optimistic range for the index. Compared to one year ago buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are feeling much better about […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 55.4 percent in July which was an increase of 4.5 percentage points above the June reading of 50.9. The 3 month moving average (3MMA) rose from 50.2 to 51.43. Any reading above 50.0 percent means manufacturing is expanding. JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) Expands for 3rd Consecutive Month Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued today by […]
The Far East and Southeast Asian ferrous scrap markets have been on the uptrend since the end of July. Since mid-July, scrap prices have risen approximately $20-$25/metric ton. This coincides with Tokyo Steel in Japan increasing scrap prices twice by approximately $24/MT. The increase in scrap prices were reactionary as steel stockists ramped purchases from […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods declined by 7.3 percent in July from the very strong June result and following three consecutive monthly increases. The decline in civil aircraft orders was the main reason for the month on month decline. The three month moving average in July rose by 0.5 percent month on month to […]
Mario Longhi is faced with the daunting task of rebuilding a US Steel afflicted with financial difficulties and labor problems under former CEO John Surma. US Steel has lost money in five of the past seven quarters, most recently $78 million in the second quarter of 2013. When the mantle is passed on September 1, […]
The percentage of service centers raising spot flat rolled steel prices dropped according to our most recent analysis of the flat rolled steel market. With flat rolled price ranges and averages stagnating at relatively high levels (compared to the lows for the year) distributors’ pricing appears to be leveling off as well. The service center […]
On Friday, August 23rd, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Higher” to “Neutral.” This change is meant to be an indicator of the direction we expect flat rolled steel prices to move over the next 30 days. Prior to Friday our Indicator was set at Higher for 10.5 weeks going back […]
The European economy finally seems to be on the road to recovery. In figures released by the European Commission, GDP in the second quarter rose by 0.3 percent in the Eurozone—a small but positive indicator of growth. The growth was led by Germany and France where GDP improved by 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel expressed their growing optimism through our Steel Market Update (SMU) steel survey. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index registered +42 which is the highest level so far this year exceeding the previous high of +38 posted at the beginning of the month. Our index is now at the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The SMU Key Market Indicators and Analysis will become part of the new Premium membership when the new SMU website comes up in September. The total number of indicators considered at present […]
Manufacturing activity is improving in the Tenth Federal District that includes the western third of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and the northern half of New Mexico. The summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City follows: Tenth District manufacturing activity improved further in August, and producers’ expectations also edged higher after easing […]
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI hit a five month high in August. The PMI registered 53.9 up from 53.7 in July indicating moderate growth in the manufacturing sector. New orders increased in August attributed to better demand. Export orders continued to rise this month but softened from July levels. Production output rose slightly in […]
Indicators Suggest No Significant Growth in Steel for the Balance of 2013 The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and steel consumption. The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus graphical analysis by Steel Market Update. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn […]
Australian company BlueScope Steel announced EBIT of $66.7 million for its 50 percent ownership of U.S. based North Star BlueScope Steel for FY 2013 ending on June 30, 2013. Earnings for the fiscal year improved by 7 percent over FY 2012 due to improved cost control and decreased depreciation charges that offset slightly weaker spreads. […]
You will hear the term “spread” quite often when discussing the differences between flat rolled steel prices from one source to another. The term can be used when discussing domestic steel mills and their differences in pricing on the same product. It can also be used when discussing the differences between foreign steel imports and […]
Ultra light gauge galvanized (thicknesses less than .015”) have traditionally been associated with foreign steel suppliers as opposed to domestic mills. The U.S. mills have, over time, relegated the ultra light gauge markets as ones of the least interest due to the amount of line time it takes to produce these products versus running a […]
Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization for July 2013 – Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 98.95 for July, up from 98.91 in June this was 1.8 percent below the peak of September 2007. Manufacturing is still making progress. The three month […]
Manufacturing continued to expand in the Philadelphia region in August but with slightly less optimism for the current pace of growth. The general economic index of The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey fell to 9.3 this month from 19.8 in July (its highest reading since March 2011) and has been in the […]
Mexican industrial output surprised analysts by falling 2.4 percent in June compared to the same month in 2012 according to the government’s statistic agency Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. Output was expected to grow by at least 0.1 percent year over year. Compared to June 2012, construction dropped 6.0 percent, manufacturing declined 1.2 percent […]
Written by: John Packard With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to the market the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what […]
With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to flat rolled prices, the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic steel mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what they were […]
One of the key items watched by Steel Market Update is service center spot pricing. Service centers have the ability to support price increases or signal the market that spot increases will fail. According to the manufacturing companies participating in our mid-July steel market survey, service centers are pushing for higher prices in the spot […]
The Institute of Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index, (PMI) registered 50.9 percent in June, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from May’s reading of 49.0 percent, but the three month moving average (3MMA) declined for the third straight month to 50.2 percent. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI indicated a sixth consecutive month of expansion in June […]
Written by: John Packard In what might be perceived to be a positive for the domestic steel industry, the steel buyers and sellers responding to the latest SMU steel market survey believe the domestic mills have at least 30 days if not longer before the current price cycle is broken. We asked those responding to […]