Manufacturing activity in New York expanded at a modest pace in February according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business index dipped two points to register 7.8. The index for new orders was down five points to 1.2 indicating flat activity. Shipments rose 4.5 points to 14.1. Delivery times were relatively unchanged […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
On Monday we will begin our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis. The market has seen prices dropping over the past few weeks at a rate not seen for a number of years. Our survey will help us not only understand where price offers/orders are today but when we think the bottom will be reached. […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
Steel Market Update received a question from one of our readers regarding a comment we made in Tuesday evening’s issue during our analysis of flat rolled steel pricing. The comment was about the domestic mills negotiating away extras and how this was impacting transactional pricing. All of the indexes are suppose to take into consideration […]
Traders at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference told me hot rolled offers at in the $460 to $480 per ton range with little to no activity. It is not clear yet if the import offers will move lower from the $460 to $480 level. One trader told me that they were not taking any […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
January steel exports from China in rose to an all-time monthly record of 10.29 million tons, surprising analysts who were expecting reduced shipments this month. Steel shipments were expected to fall after China canceled the export tax rebate for Boron-added steel on January 1. Analysts predicted steel export volume would drop as much 30 percent […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are less optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market conditions than what we saw just two weeks ago. The buyers and sellers who participated in this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis reported concerns regarding falling steel prices, bloated inventories and shrinking margins. […]
Dan DiMicco continues to make economic and political waves with his newest book, American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness. In his book, the outspoken former Nucor CEO and chairman tells how restoring American manufacturing to greatness will make America strong. Publisher St. Martin’s Press, says that DiMicco, with his usual blunt […]
The domestic steel mills and their ferrous scrap suppliers traditionally negotiate pricing on scrap to be delivered during the first few days of the new month. This means the mills and their suppliers are deep into negotiations regarding February scrap purchases right now. Last week the word amongst the “scrappies,” as well as their mill […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
Global manufacturing continues to grow steadily with expansion in production and new orders in January. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly last month to 51.7 from 51.5 in December. “The PMI turned higher in January, including moderate gains in the indexes of output and new orders,” commented David Hensley, Director of Global Economics […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 0.6 points in January to 59.4 from a revised reading of 58.8 in December. The increased manufacturing activity follows two consecutive months of declines. The index showed a modest increase in a new orders, order backlogs and production, driving employment to a 14-month high. Inflationary pressures eased for the fourth […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Steel Dynamics reported a record setting year and fourth quarter 2014. Steel shipments for the quarter were up 51 percent to 2.3 million tons from 1.5 million tons in Q3 2013. Steel fabrication had operating income of $22 million following a loss of $122,000 a year ago. For the full-year 2014 steel shipments totaled 7.4 […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth slowed in […]
“Where does the elevator stop,” is what one flat rolled steel buyer told Steel Market Update during a phone conversation about pricing held earlier today. “I haven’t hit the panic button yet, but my finger is close…” Flat rolled steel prices continued to tumble as some mill salespeople were telling their customers they have been […]
New orders for durable goods in December fell by 3.4 percent from November’s level to $230.5 billion, economists had expected a 0.5 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.7 percent. The December result is a sharp deviation from the trend line that has existed since the recession, (Figure 1). The huge […]
Fourth quarter crude steel production at NLMK Indiana decreased 7.6 percent to 162,000 tonnes (178,571 tons) quarter over quarter and was down 1.3 percent year over year. Steel mill capacity was running at 84 percent during Q4. Rolled steel output totaled 483,000 tonnes (532,407 tons), dropping 9 percent sequentially. Decreased sales of hot and cold […]
In another article in tonight’s newsletter we report on the production statistics based on AISI data. Essentially, production is up a couple of percent while at the same time, in another article, we report on foreign steel imports which are up 38 percent. I don’t know if the domestic steel mills will file dumping suits […]
One of the questions asked during last week’s Steel Market Update (SMU) flat rolled steel market survey was, where do you think benchmark hot rolled prices will bottom in the current cycle? Last week HRC average was $570 per ton (survey began before our index average adjusted to $560 per ton). The responses ranged from […]
Ship owners are reporting “staggering losses” says the January 15 MID-SHIP Report. “Dry cargo freight rates are basically in “free fall” because of very low bunker costs coupled with major over supply of ships thus forcing freight levels down to where they were in 1982-1986,” according to MID-SHIP. The Baltic Indices all registered declines in […]
Metalforming companies reported softening in shipments at the end of 2014 but are generally optimistic about prospects for 2015. The January 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report follows. CLEVELAND, OH—January 21, 2015—According to the January 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies are optimistic about business conditions during the next […]
First, a correction or clarification from an article done last week about US Steel idling one of their tin plate mills. We understand that USS has tin mill operations in Gary as part of the Gary Works, they also have a plant in Portage, IN which is part of the old National Steel facility and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about their company’s chances of being successful in both the current market conditions as well as three to six months into the future. However, there have been some clouds building as our 3MMA has been trending lower over the past four months. We have […]
The three T’s, taxes, trade and transportation, are top issues the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) hoped would be addressed by President Obama in the State of the Union address earlier this week. AISI president and CEO Thomas Gibson expressed disappointment in the President’s address which had some “positive elements for the manufacturing sector” […]