New orders for durable goods in April fell by $1.2 billion to $235.5 billion or 0.5 percent from March’s level. This was in line with analysts’ expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 0.2 percent. There has been a sharp deviation of the 3MMA from its trend line in the last five months […]
Essar Steel Algoma is asking for support from the City of Sault Ste Marie in challenging a request by the Independent Contractors and Business Association (ICBA) and the province of British Columbia for ‘regional exemption’ of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on rebar imports. “Although we are not a rebar producer, it is our view that […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment continues to be well within the optimistic end of our range as the Steel Market Update (SMU) Future Sentiment Index was reported to be +61 this week. This is up one point from two weeks ago but unchanged from one month ago. The SMU Future Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers […]
We decided to focus on medium and heavy truck (M&HT) production this month as this sector has had little recognition in our past vehicle production reports. Interestingly M&HT production in NAFTA has been a terrific leading indicator of recessions since 1990. Figure 1 has recessions highlighted. It seems that the planners of truck production read […]
Good evening from Merrillville, Indiana, home of our Steel 101 workshop which started earlier today and continues tomorrow. We toured the NLMK USA Portage, Indiana steel mill this afternoon in absolutely perfect conditions. Its cool here (high 50’s) and cloudy today (we are close to Lake Michigan) after arriving to high 70’s and sunny skies. […]
The value of the U.S. dollar has been one of the main themes affecting commodities around the world, including steel prices. The Russian ruble collapses making their steel the cheapest in the world. They, in turn, put pressure on the Chinese (who already are having issues due to their massive over-capacity of steelmaking) who are […]
Business conditions improved for New York manufacturers in May but optimism faltered for future conditions. The May 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index climbed four points to 3.1, indicating a slight improvement for the month but below forecasts by economists. The new orders index was in positive territory for the first time since […]
Networking is always an important piece of doing business in the steel business. There are, in my opinion, three great places to network and each is a little different from the others. I attended the Metals Industry Dinner in support of the Chicago area Boy Scouts (Boy Scout Dinner) on Thursday of last week. The […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: We are last 2118 on the […]
Metalforming companies are expecting softer business conditions during the next three months according to the May 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. More participants surveyed thought economic conditions would remain the same (60 percent up from 58 percent) or decline (16 percent compared to 9 percent in April). Incoming orders are expected to […]
For the first time in many months we have seen a break in spot market steel pricing coming out of the service centers. Manufacturing companies have been reporting to Steel Market Update via our flat rolled steel market questionnaire for a number of months that service center spot prices were falling. In the survey just […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in April but the March result was revised down by 41,000 to a mere 85,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains through April was 191,000 and the combined result for March and April was the lowest since […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US $ against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. In one month through about April 12th this index weakened by 1.9 percent which was a sharp reversal from the previous seven month trend. The monthly BI is a “Real” […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are split over whether or not the price increase announcements of two weeks ago will actually be collected. This past week we invited approximately 600 companies to participate in our flat rolled steel market survey. Of the more than 100 companies who responded fifty-three percent told SMU that […]
Will Domestic Price Increases Create Opportunities for Foreign Steel? Over the past few months domestic steel prices have become competitive against foreign steel imports. With the price announcements SMU wondered if the increases would widen the spread, thus creating an opportunity for more foreign steel to come to the U.S. During last week’s flat rolled […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful both now and into the future. However, Steel Market Update has been seeing small adjustments lower to both our current and future Sentiment Indices. Future Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability […]
Klöckner & Co SE EBITDA was heavily impacted by the sharp price declines in the U.S. EBITDA of €10 million ($11.2 million) was reported down from €45 million ($50.7 million) in Q1 2014 Shipments for Kloeckner Metals (the Americas segment) were up 0.6 percent y/y to 682,000 tonnes (751,763 tons). US shipments were up by […]
CHICAGO, IL, May 6, 2015 – The Steel Tube Institute (STI) has announced the retirement of Executive Director Bill Wolfe after 13 years serving as head of the industry trade association. Joseph Anderson, who was named Hollow Structural Sections (HSS) Director last April, has been chosen as STI’s new Executive Director. Wolfe leaves behind a […]
I had an interesting email from one of our members who expressed an issue with the reduction of articles written by me. Here is a portion of the email, “When we first subscribed to your publication several years ago, we found that John P was doing most of the writing and he would stick his […]
Steel buyers in the April ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain the same during the next six months but were more optimistic regarding sales and production in their specific industry. Forty percent of buyers expect the trend for sales and production to improve, compared to 30 percent in March. Fifty […]
Global manufacturing fell to a 21 month low in April according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index registered 51.0, down from 51.7 in March. “The April PMI shows a loss of momentum in global factory output in April, with production and new orders both decelerating,” commented Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. March data was released on May 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January, to 52.9 in February and to 51.5 in March it […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
There are always two sides to any story. The domestic steel mill view is the influx of foreign steel is due to illegal dumping by the companies or countries exporting steel to the United States. The manufacturing companies who are benefiting from the lower priced imports (and their impact on domestic steel prices) have a […]
The Trade Promotion Authority bill S.995, or “fast track bill” as it being called, passed the Senate Finance Committee last week by a vote of 20-6. The fast track portion gives the President the authority and guidelines to negotiate trade deals in exchange for a vote by Congress passing resulting trade agreements without amendment. The […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
This will be another interesting week for the steel industry. We have US Steel and AK Steel announcing their earnings and conducting conference calls with analysts. Will any of the mills make a move to push prices prior to one of these conference calls (mills have done it in the past)? There continues to be […]
As we discussed at the beginning of the month April, Steel Market Update (SMU) will present our Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index at the beginning of our Sentiment articles. Future Sentiment provides a better look at what steel buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are thinking regarding their company’s ability to be successful three […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]