SMU watches service center spot flat rolled steel prices to their end user customers very closely. As markets ebb and flow we have found that steel service centers reach a point of “capitulation,” which is seen as a point when distributors will support a change in the market environment – including accepting mill price increases. […]
There are two groups of people who get access to a good portion of our flat rolled steel market analysis which is conducted by Steel Market Update twice per month. The two groups are: the people who participate in our research and our Premium level members. We believe our analysis is superior to others which […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 142,000 jobs were added in September which was well below consensus expectations of about 200,000. In addition July was revised down from 245,000 to 223,000 and August was revised down from 173,000 to 136,000. An upward revision for August had been […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data was released on Thursday October 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
A debate has begun as to when flat rolled steel prices will bottom and begin to reverse course. Part of that dialogue is what will supply look like should US Steel go through with balancing their production by temporarily taking down their Granite City Works. This would be on top of the trade suits which […]
Buyers and sellers of steel continued to be optimistic about business but less so than a few months ago. Since then Sentiment has been trending lower as the strain of ever lower steel prices, issues regarding demand, lower commodity prices and shrinking margins due to high inventory levels are affecting both buyers and sellers. Today […]
The 12 countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership have finally reached accord on an agreement after more than five years of intensive negotiations, effectively creating the world’s largest free trade zone. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said in an announcement that the agreement will “support jobs, drive sustainable growth, foster inclusive development and promote innovation across […]
SEWICKLEY, PA – OCTOBER 6, 2015 – Esmark, Inc., a diversified holding company and parent company of Esmark Steel Group, today announced that Michael J. Bush, a Principal of Esmark Steel Group, has been named Vice President of Commercial Sales for Esmark, Inc., effective immediately. Bush will report to Esmark, Inc. and Esmark Steel Group […]
Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slipping on a regular basis for a number of months. This has created a market where buyers expect lower prices each time they order steel, even if there is only a week or two between orders. This tends to keep order sizes modest and develops a feeding frenzy between […]
Both manufacturing companies and flat rolled steel service centers reported the percentage of distributors offering lower spot pricing on flat rolled steels as growing. This is a key indicator followed by Steel Market Update (and no other publication) as falling spot prices out of the distributors are usually due to high inventories leading to competitive […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
AISI: WASHINGTON, D.C. – American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) President and CEO Thomas J. Gibson today urged President Obama to “fight for manufacturing and for steel” during the U.S. visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. Gibson said his group wholeheartedly supports the positions outlined in letters sent this week to the Administration […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the current and future (three to six months into the future) market conditions. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index (Current) is being reported as +47, down 6 points over one month ago and well below the +64 […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports that members are forecasting a slight downturn in business conditions in the next three months. The PMA Business Conditions report is a monthly economic indicator of manufacturing, sampling opinions of 127 U.S. and Canadian metalforming companies. Average daily shipping levels are expected to decrease slightly, said metalformers, while incoming orders […]
Last week we reported on a change in the cold rolled antidumping/countervailing duty scope language that has created some concern within the manufacturing community. The concern is related to changes which resulted in this being added to the scope language: “Subject merchandise includes cold-rolled steel that has been further processed in a third country, including […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call with HARDI wholesalers who supply galvanized sheet and coil products to the HVAC mechanical contractors across the United States and Canada. The wholesalers also supply other products such as air conditioners, furnaces and many other products to companies working on residential, multi-family and commercial construction […]
As we have mentioned in a recent article, there has been an intentional change in the scope language associated with the cold rolled and hot rolled antidumping and countervailing duty suits. The change in the language appears to add parts that are not part of Chapter 72 of the Harmonized Code (iron and steel). Of […]
Manufacturing indicators were mixed in the September Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Bank suggests that responses may have been influenced by “volatility in the stock market and international news reports.” The index for current manufacturing activity unexpectedly dropped from 8.3 in August to -6.0. It was the first […]
The legalese can be brain numbing when reviewing the documents involved with the various steel trade suits. However, large manufacturing companies have their attorneys go through the petitions and review the specific language in order to recognize when changes are made in order to protect themselves from surprises. If your company has not done so […]
The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Index declined for the second consecutive month, indicating a slowing in business activity for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index declined from -14.9 to -14.7. Prior to August,the index has been hovering around the zero point for four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Both […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through August. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]