Steel Market Update (SMU) asked a manufacturing company when they thought prices will stop dropping? Their response was both classic and profound, “Prices will stop going down, when they go up. Prices can’t go below absolute zero. Question then becomes as to what defines absolute zero…?” Flat rolled steel prices continued their march lower this […]
AK Steel announced today that James L. Wainscott is retiring as President and Chief Executive Officer of AK Steel, effective January 1, 2016. Wainscott will continue to serve as Chairman of the Board of Directors in a non-executive capacity. Roger K. Newport has been named as the new Chief Executive Officer and will serve as […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, following a decrease of 3.0 percent in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufactured goods have been pressured by a decrease in exports due to weak global economic conditions and a strong U.S. dollar that makes pricing for U.S. products less competitive. Transportation […]
The Texas manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed manufacturing increasing in October after nine months of flat or declining output. The production index rose to 4.8 for the first growth in output for the region in 2015. New orders continued a third month of negative reading, falling 3 points […]
The UAW and General Motors reached a proposed Tentative Agreement at 11:43 p.m. Sunday, avoiding a strike deadline of 11:59 p.m. “We believe that this agreement will present stable long-term significant wage gains and job security commitments to UAW members now and in the future,” said UAW President Dennis Williams. “We look forward to presenting […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-October flat rolled steel market analysis. We invited almost 600 companies to participate in our questionnaire which is focused on tracking trends affecting flat rolled steel buyers and users. In our opinion, one of the most valuable pieces of information coming out of our market analysis is the […]
The Precision Metalforming Association expects continuing weaker business conditions for the next three months. The PMA’s October Business Conditions Report showed a “minor, but continuing,” downturn in economic activity along with anticipation that orders will soften in the coming months. Current daily shipping levels dipped in October with 33 percent of survey participants reporting a […]
“The UK steel industry is struggling for survival in the face of extremely challenging market conditions.” That’s how Tata Europe CEO Karl Koehler summed up the condition of the industry that is facing an onslaught of cheap steel imports, particularly from China, high energy costs and a weak export market due to a strong British […]
As a Premium level member (or free trial) Steel Market Update provides access to a large portion of the flat rolled steel market survey results we generate twice per month throughout the year. We feel this is a key piece to your Premium membership and we want to make sure that you are taking advantage […]
The difference between auto industry and steel industry: the UAW has issue a notice to GM that they could walk out at midnight tonight (Sunday) if they don’t have a contract. The USW is content to work under the old contract for as long as they can get away with it since both US Steel […]
Business conditions affecting manufactures and flat rolled steel service centers are expected to be more challenging based on the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index released today. Buyers, sellers and those associated with the flat rolled steel industry were less optimistic than what we had been seeing over the past 27 months. Our Current Sentiment Index, […]
Steel earnings calls began this last week and all of them reference the downturn in the oil industry and its effect on production. Low oil prices, overcapacity, and resulting weak demand for OCTG products continues to force firms to adjust output and workforce. Vallourec Star Steel announced this week that it will begin a third […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q3 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.9 percent in the third Q, beating forecasts for 6.8 percent growth, but decelerating to its slowest pace […]
USW workers are contesting claims by Allegheny Technologies that the mills are currently “meeting and in many cases exceeding output, quality, and safety expectations” during the lockout of regular union employees. “ATI is trying to paint a rosy picture,” said USW Vice President Tom Conway, “but all indications suggest a company that is limping along […]
USW workers are contesting claims by Allegheny Technologies that the mills are currently “meeting and in many cases exceeding output, quality, and safety expectations” during the lockout of regular union employees. “ATI is trying to paint a rosy picture,” said USW Vice President Tom Conway, “but all indications suggest a company that is limping along […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month basis has declined for eight of the first nine months of 2015. On a year over year basis using a three month moving average […]
A reminder, if you received an email invitation to participate in our flat rolled market analysis please click on the link contained in the message. The questionnaire won’t take more than a few minutes to complete and at the end of the week we will have a Power Point presentation for all of those who […]
USW negotiations with ArcelorMittal and US Steel continue to be bogged down. The USW bargaining committee with ArcelorMittal will take a brief break this coming week to conduct discussions with local membership. “We urge ArcelorMittal management to use this time away from the table to consider the uncertainty and strain this unnecessarily long, drawn-out process […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
For weeks SMU procrastinated about taking the time to attend this year’s METALCON exhibition in Tampa, Florida. We ended up flying to Tampa yesterday morning (Wednesday) for the opening of the show and then returning to our offices last night. With all of the uncertainty which has enveloped the flat rolled steel industry over the […]
A new report by the American Trucking Association reveals that by the end of 2015 the industry will be short nearly 48,000 drivers. By 2024, if the current trend continues, the industry may find itself in need of almost 175,000 drivers. The shortage is not a new issue. According to ATA, the problem has been […]
Two of the nation’s most watched manufacturing indicators showed weakening business conditions in October. Surveys of manufacturing firms conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York also indicated muted optimism for business conditions during the next six months. Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing activity declined for the third consecutive month in New […]
A new report by the American Trucking Association reveals that by the end of 2015 the industry will be short nearly 48,000 drivers. By 2024, if the current trend continues, the industry may find itself in need of almost 175,000 drivers. The shortage is not a new issue. According to ATA, the problem has been […]
Flat rolled steel buyers and industry executives reported steel mills in both Canada and the United States as “aggressively looking for business” to run across their lines. Steel Market Update spoke with a manufacturing company on Monday who told us their company had been approached by a domestic mill not usually associated with cheap hot […]
SMU watches service center spot flat rolled steel prices to their end user customers very closely. As markets ebb and flow we have found that steel service centers reach a point of “capitulation,” which is seen as a point when distributors will support a change in the market environment – including accepting mill price increases. […]
There are two groups of people who get access to a good portion of our flat rolled steel market analysis which is conducted by Steel Market Update twice per month. The two groups are: the people who participate in our research and our Premium level members. We believe our analysis is superior to others which […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]