One of the questions Steel Market Update received from a service center early this week was, “WHEN” will the bottom of the pricing cycle be achieved (the emphasis provided by the person asking the question). Stress levels continue to build at flat rolled steel distributors as evidenced by the percentage of our service center survey […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 271,000 jobs were added in October, which was well above economist’s consensus expectations. August’s gains were revised up by 17,000, but September’s were revised down by 5,000. This followed September’s result of 137,000 which was well below consensus expectations of about […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data was released on Monday November 2nd. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is continuing its downward trend, even though the Current Index is 4 points higher and the Future segment of the Index is 9 points higher than what we reported during the middle of October. The numbers we follow closely are our 3 month moving averages (3MMA) […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced Preliminary Determinations on countervailing duties (CVD) for corrosion resistant steels from Italy (affirmative), China (affirmative), India (affirmative) and Korea (affirmative). There was one country, Taiwan, which was found to not be subject to countervailing duties. You will notice that there are a number of steel mills/exporters that were hit […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had positive growth on a month over month basis in June and July but […]
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI indicated manufacturing is expanding at a slightly faster rate as the world enters fourth quarter. The October Global PMI registered at 51.4, up from 50.7. The UK led the rise in manufacturing with solid improvement in output and new orders. The U.S. took second place in manufacturing growth alongside […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter was 1.49 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the third estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
Gibraltar Industries reported net sales increased 30 percent in third quarter 2015 to $305 million. Adjusted net income was $15.7 million compared with $9.5 million in Q3 2014. “Gibraltar delivered strong financial results in the third quarter, as we continued to execute on the value-creation strategy we introduced late last year,” said Chief Executive Officer […]
The Chicago Business Barometer gained 7.5 points to register 56.2 in October. The bounceback was due mainly from strong gains in production and new orders. All three indicators were at their highest reading since January of this year. On a three month moving average the Barometer was 53.1, up 15.4 percent from September. Production leapt […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) asked a manufacturing company when they thought prices will stop dropping? Their response was both classic and profound, “Prices will stop going down, when they go up. Prices can’t go below absolute zero. Question then becomes as to what defines absolute zero…?” Flat rolled steel prices continued their march lower this […]
AK Steel announced today that James L. Wainscott is retiring as President and Chief Executive Officer of AK Steel, effective January 1, 2016. Wainscott will continue to serve as Chairman of the Board of Directors in a non-executive capacity. Roger K. Newport has been named as the new Chief Executive Officer and will serve as […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, following a decrease of 3.0 percent in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufactured goods have been pressured by a decrease in exports due to weak global economic conditions and a strong U.S. dollar that makes pricing for U.S. products less competitive. Transportation […]
The Texas manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed manufacturing increasing in October after nine months of flat or declining output. The production index rose to 4.8 for the first growth in output for the region in 2015. New orders continued a third month of negative reading, falling 3 points […]
The UAW and General Motors reached a proposed Tentative Agreement at 11:43 p.m. Sunday, avoiding a strike deadline of 11:59 p.m. “We believe that this agreement will present stable long-term significant wage gains and job security commitments to UAW members now and in the future,” said UAW President Dennis Williams. “We look forward to presenting […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-October flat rolled steel market analysis. We invited almost 600 companies to participate in our questionnaire which is focused on tracking trends affecting flat rolled steel buyers and users. In our opinion, one of the most valuable pieces of information coming out of our market analysis is the […]
The Precision Metalforming Association expects continuing weaker business conditions for the next three months. The PMA’s October Business Conditions Report showed a “minor, but continuing,” downturn in economic activity along with anticipation that orders will soften in the coming months. Current daily shipping levels dipped in October with 33 percent of survey participants reporting a […]
“The UK steel industry is struggling for survival in the face of extremely challenging market conditions.” That’s how Tata Europe CEO Karl Koehler summed up the condition of the industry that is facing an onslaught of cheap steel imports, particularly from China, high energy costs and a weak export market due to a strong British […]
As a Premium level member (or free trial) Steel Market Update provides access to a large portion of the flat rolled steel market survey results we generate twice per month throughout the year. We feel this is a key piece to your Premium membership and we want to make sure that you are taking advantage […]
The difference between auto industry and steel industry: the UAW has issue a notice to GM that they could walk out at midnight tonight (Sunday) if they don’t have a contract. The USW is content to work under the old contract for as long as they can get away with it since both US Steel […]
Business conditions affecting manufactures and flat rolled steel service centers are expected to be more challenging based on the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index released today. Buyers, sellers and those associated with the flat rolled steel industry were less optimistic than what we had been seeing over the past 27 months. Our Current Sentiment Index, […]
Steel earnings calls began this last week and all of them reference the downturn in the oil industry and its effect on production. Low oil prices, overcapacity, and resulting weak demand for OCTG products continues to force firms to adjust output and workforce. Vallourec Star Steel announced this week that it will begin a third […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q3 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.9 percent in the third Q, beating forecasts for 6.8 percent growth, but decelerating to its slowest pace […]
USW workers are contesting claims by Allegheny Technologies that the mills are currently “meeting and in many cases exceeding output, quality, and safety expectations” during the lockout of regular union employees. “ATI is trying to paint a rosy picture,” said USW Vice President Tom Conway, “but all indications suggest a company that is limping along […]
USW workers are contesting claims by Allegheny Technologies that the mills are currently “meeting and in many cases exceeding output, quality, and safety expectations” during the lockout of regular union employees. “ATI is trying to paint a rosy picture,” said USW Vice President Tom Conway, “but all indications suggest a company that is limping along […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month basis has declined for eight of the first nine months of 2015. On a year over year basis using a three month moving average […]
A reminder, if you received an email invitation to participate in our flat rolled market analysis please click on the link contained in the message. The questionnaire won’t take more than a few minutes to complete and at the end of the week we will have a Power Point presentation for all of those who […]
USW negotiations with ArcelorMittal and US Steel continue to be bogged down. The USW bargaining committee with ArcelorMittal will take a brief break this coming week to conduct discussions with local membership. “We urge ArcelorMittal management to use this time away from the table to consider the uncertainty and strain this unnecessarily long, drawn-out process […]