SMU Sentiment Index Sees Renewed Optimism The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen a renewed spurt of optimism based on our latest data. Sentiment, which had been trending lower since the beginning of July based on our three month moving average (3MMA) reversed course and moved higher this week. Our 3MMA for Current Sentiment […]
Every year Keith Gunter of McElroy Metal produces a Christmas poem dedicated to recent steel events and wishes for the New Year. Take a moment to enjoy this year’s spin on the old classic, Twas the Night Before Christmas: T’was almost Christmas,So time to reflect on the year,Cost has had its ups and downs,But has […]
Early December logistic reports show no major problems in the shipping markets. Shipments on most transportation modes are expected to slow as the holiday season approaches. A new Secretary of Transportation has been appointed by President-elect Donald Trump. Elaine Cho, former Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Deputy Secretary of Transportation under […]
Earlier today Dr. Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trends Research spoke to the HARDI annual conference in Colorado Springs, Colorado. He started by telling the 1300 people attending the conference, “We did not change our forecast due to the election.” He went on to say that in government things don’t happen quickly, “The economy […]
Wilbur Ross Jr. has been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Commerce Secretary. Ross is a billionaire investor known as the “bankruptcy king.” Forbes estimates the Ross fortune at $2.9 billion made by buying and restructuring troubled companies. One of those companies was Donald Trump’s bankrupt casino in the 1990s. Ross was a […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. October data for CPIP was released on Thursday December 1st. The tables in this report don’t look so good but in fact the single month of October looked a lot better […]
In November net job creation was 178,000 which was about in line with analysts’ expectations. The employment situation is strong enough for the Fed to likely go ahead with a target rate increase later this month. September employment numbers were revised up by 17,000 and October down by 19,000. Using a three month moving average […]
Manufacturing conditions improved across the globe in November, according to the latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index rose to a 27 month high of 52.1, inching up slightly from 52.0 in October. Expansion was noted in 22 of the 30 nations covered under the global survey. New order growth was the strongest […]
The ISM Report on Business showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding in November for the third month in a row. The PMI, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, rose to 53.2 percent from 51.9 in October. New orders increased by 0.9 points to 53 percent and production rose 1.4 percentage […]
Lack of infrastructure projects has led to a decline or stagnation of construction employment in one third of U.S. metro areas in October said the Associated General Contractors of America. The press release from AGC follows: Construction employment declined or was stagnant in one-third of metro areas between October 2015 and October 2016 amid diminishing […]
During the process of completing our questionnaire all of those invited first get to respond to a number of questions aimed at all of our respondents. Then we segregate the respondents into their appropriate groups where they respond to questions specifically designed for each group. The two largest groups are manufacturing companies and steel service […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
Steel Market Update went out to a couple of hundred steel buyers and executives today as we probe for information about flat rolled steel prices. At the same time we asked questions about price direction and demand. Tonight we will cover price direction (prior to AM increase announcement) and on Thursday we will cover their […]
There has been a great deal of discussion on how the Trump administration will affect manufacturing and the steel industry in the coming months. Steel Market Update asked AISI and domestic steel mills what regulations they would like to see repealed under the new administration and what kind of environment for steel and manufacturing they […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a minor decline in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA). The majority of the November survey respondents (79 percent) expect economic activity to remain the same or decline. Shipping levels were reported to be overall steady, with the average […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had an all-time high of 106.28 in December 2014 and trended down through June this year when it experienced a three month turnaround followed by a slight decline in October to 104.32. Figure […]
Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Currently available GDP data is through the third quarter, other data included here is through October. Many analysts don’t believe these Party self-serving figures but we include them in our reports because of the importance […]
As of late this afternoon www.Kitco.com was reporting zinc spot pricing around $1.22 per pound. Zinc recently reported prices not seen in the past 9 years and those of you buying galvanized and Galvalume steels need to be aware of how zinc is trading. The U.S. steel mills published new extras just as zinc pierced […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a survey of the flat rolled steel markets. We invite close to 600 people representing approximately 550 companies spread out around the United States and Canada. We concentrate on two main steel buying groups: manufacturing companies and service centers/wholesalers. Our most recent market trends analysis was completed […]
Every two weeks Steel Market Update publishes an analysis of flat rolled steel mill lead times by product. In our last newsletter we told our readers that those responding to our questionnaire just before Thanksgiving said hot rolled lead times were averaging 4.18 weeks from the time a new order is placed until the steel […]
In the past foreign steel imports have been a key component to the health of the domestic manufacturing base in the United States. Foreign steel helps keep U.S. steel mill pricing reasonably competitive with the world steel markets. The domestic steel mills do not have the ability to produce all of the steel needed when […]
Orders for durable goods in October rose faster than expected by economists. The Commerce Department reported orders were up 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of $239.4 billion. Civilian aircraft orders led the increase, jumping 1.4 percent from September to October. Core capital goods, which are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft considered to be […]
This evening’s issue is a bit different than most Sunday evenings. With the Thanksgiving Holiday and most steel-related businesses being closed on Friday the amount of direct news was limited. We do have a couple of articles about new home sales. oil rigs and durable goods but, I spent a good portion of my 5 […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel market. One of the proprietary products that comes out of this effort is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. Our index measures how steel buyers and those that sell flat rolled steels feel about their company’s ability to be successful both […]
Flat rolled steel lead times continued to move out (extend) according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey which we began on Friday and concluded earlier today. Lead times are now more than one week longer than year ago levels as steel buyers have entered the market in response to the three […]
Business activity stabilized in New York State according to the November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The index rose eight points to a reading of 1.5, bringing the index out of contraction for the first time in four months but leaving manufacturing relatively flat for the month. New orders and shipments picked up and indices […]
In October net job creation was 161,000. August was revised up by 9,000 and September revised up by 35,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for October was 176,000 down from 233,000 in August and from 206,000 in September. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel responding to our early November flat rolled steel market trends survey were found to be of the same mind as what we measured in the middle of October. Current Sentiment* was recorded as being +53.00 the same as what we reported in mid-October. The +53 is the best […]
Once per month HARDI* wholesalers conduct a galvanized steel conference call so they can better understand what is happening in the broader markets as they deal with steel pricing, demand and inventory issues. The HARDI monthly call was held on Wednesday, November 9, just one day after the presidential election. Not surprisingly, the future of […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data for CPIP was released on Tuesday November 1st. On a rolling 3 months basis year over year total construction has declined every month since March when growth was 12.4 […]