Today’s hot rolled, ferrous scrap and iron ore futures article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Along with HRC, iron ore and BUS trading Andre also discusses the S&P 500, copper and crude […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is seeing flat rolled steel prices as drifting at this time. We saw slight adjustments in both the upper and lower end of our range on hot rolled compressing our range. Cold rolled was up by $5 per ton while galvanized was unchanged and Galvalume was lower. Market players are sitting […]
Late last week Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our galvanized range to take into consideration the growing number of base prices reaching down to the $35.00/cwt level. Our galvanized range is now $35.00/cwt-$38.00/cwt for new spot orders. Over the weekend we adjusted our hot rolled range to reflect the lower numbers we have been collecting […]
Steel Market Update is revising our galvanized and Galvalume price ranges and averages to accommodate new information that we have been gathering this week. A number of steel buyers and at least one steel mill advised us that the low end of our ranges on these two products were not representative of the deals being […]
We have been getting mixed messages from steel buyers this week regarding the status of the increase announcements and spot flat rolled steel prices. A number of buyers are reporting the mills as pushing the new numbers while others are reporting prices as remaining the same as they were one week ago. One thing that […]
Flat rolled steel prices began to stabilize this past week after having peaked in the middle of August at $675 per ton (hot rolled) and then slowly sliding to a low of $630 per ton during the week ending November 1, 2014. The SMU HRC average actually rose slightly to $635 per ton this past […]
One of the items Steel Market Update is watching closely is steel mill lead times. This is especially true after price increases have been announced. Typically, we see lead times move out (extend) after a price announcement has been made. This is due to the rush to get orders quoted prior to the increase announcement […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early November flat rolled steel market survey this week. We invited approximately 600 companies to participate in the process. Of those participating 44 percent were manufacturing companies and 44 percent were steel service centers. The balance of the respondents was comprised of 6 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel […]
AK Steel, US Steel, Nucor (verbal) and ArcelorMittal all made spot price adjustments this past week. A number of the smaller mills are holding back or have lead times out into 2015 and their order books are closed. Steel Market Update Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward Neutral meaning prices could be in transition […]
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported net earnings of $34.9 million for its fourth quarter ending August 31, 2014. Net sales increased 12 percent year over year to $1.9 billion. For the full fiscal year 2014, net earnings were 115.6 million on net sales of 7 billion. In comparison, FY 2013 net earnings were 77.3 million […]
I adjusted the SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral in recognition of the attempt by the domestic steel mills to reverse the price trend and move prices higher. A Neutral indicator means prices could move in either direction (or remain stable) over the next 30 days. I understand two mills have made very […]
There has been a flurry of activity as buyers and sellers of steel anticipate a possible price increase announcement (which came late this afternoon in the form of a $20 increase out of AK Steel). Buyers reported the domestic mills as being aggressive this week and we saw our price averages negatively impacted as prices […]
This article was written just prior to the AK Steel announcement of a $20 per ton price increase which we received after 5 PM this afternoon. Steel Market Update reported in a recent issue (SMU Oct. 23rd) recently that this is the time of the year that the domestic steel mills traditionally move to stem […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-October flat rolled steel market survey this week. Based on the results of that survey, we found lead times essentially unchanged from one week ago and basically the same as one year ago. Hot rolled averages 4.2 weeks, cold rolled 6.09 weeks, galvanized 6.11 weeks and Galvalume 6.58 weeks. […]
Steel Market Update is hearing the rumors about the potential for a new flat rolled steel price increase. The rumors are mostly coming from the service center and financial community. But, our readers, if paying attention, should not be surprised by the rumors and the real possibility that the mills will attempt to cut their […]
Based on the analysis of the responses we received so far this week on our survey coupled with channel checks we found flat rolled steel prices slipped on cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume while remaining the same on hot rolled. We found that it is too early to see if the termination of the Russian […]
Although we heard from a number of buyers mixed messages regarding the spot markets. Some buyers are seeing the market as continuing to weaken while others feel the mills have dug in their heals and prices are firm (at least in their region of the country). We have heard rumors of one, or more, mills […]
SMU was reading a blog post put up by Metal Miner this morning regarding the consolidation of the steel industry. The main premise of the guest article from James May of Steel-Insight out of Canada, was 81 percent of the hot rolled production in the United States and Canada is controlled by four companies: ArcelorMittal, […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
On Monday of this week, SMU began our early October flat rolled steel market survey. Invitations were sent to approximately 600 companies across the United States and Canada. The survey was concluded earlier today (Thursday). One of the key focus areas for the survey is to discover if there are any changes in lead times […]
We are starting to see continuous movement in flat rolled steel prices – especially on hot rolled coil which was down another $5 per ton this week. Steel Market Update is also starting to gather price points beyond the range of “slippage” and we have therefore adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower […]
Our Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” since the last day of June 2014. We are now entering our 4th month and hot rolled steel prices have barely budged from the center line (OK, there have been some mild gyrations but no clear cut path up or down during the past three months). […]
Steel Market Update spent the last two days canvassing end users and service centers to see where flat rolled steel prices are at the moment and where they might be heading from here. We heard from many service centers and end users that business conditions and demand for their products are doing quite well. We […]
From the years 1997 through 2007 Steel Market Update’s founder and publisher, John Packard, was representing Winner Steel, a domestic conversion mill operating out of Sharon, Pennsylvania and now part of the NLMK USA group. He shares some of his old notes on galvanized pricing which ultimately lead to the beginnings of Steel Market Update […]
Everyone continues to watch for how the consolidation of the Severstal NA assets (Dearborn and Columbus steel mills) will impact the flat rolled steel markets. Early indications are for shorter lead times out of the SDI Columbus facility and Dearborn lead times are shorter than the Middletown and Ashland plants for AK Steel. But, it […]
On Wednesday, Steel Market Update (SMU) participated in a monthly steel conference call hosted by the Heating, Air-conditioning , Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). HARDI wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and coils to the mechanical contractors involved in residential, multi-family and commercial construction segments of the construction industry. Consolidation was the first topic of discussion with AK Steel […]
Steel buyers think the domestic mills are riding high at today’s prices. Iron ore prices are dropping, coking coal is down and scrap has been treading water and the word is it may dip a bit as we enter the month of October. Steel buyers think the mills are floating on the top of the […]
The following article was originally published in our Premium edition of Steel Market Update last week after the MSCI shipment and inventory data was released. Service Center Apparent Inventory Deficit/Excess is one of the proprietary products available for our Premium Level customers. We thought our Executive customers might be interested in how our forecast did […]
Based on the results from our most recent Steel Market Update steel market analysis, flat rolled steel mill lead times, the number of weeks needed to produce and ship a new order, remained above 2013 levels on all products. SMU conducted one of our twice monthly steel market surveys this past week. During the process […]
Steel Market Update nailed (in our opinion) last month’s forecast for August. We projected that the -193,000 tons deficit from the end of July (based on our proprietary formula for what a balanced flat rolled inventory level should be for the U.S. service centers) would be eliminated and move into a very small excess situation. […]