Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early December flat rolled steel market analysis this week. As part of the survey process, SMU asks those responding questions about flat rolled steel mill lead times. From their responses we create our average lead time for the industry by product. This allows us the ability to evaluate whether […]
Based strictly on the results from our Steel Market Update flat rolled market survey results, domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. This is something that we see on a regular basis as lead times slip and the need for orders increases at the domestic […]
One of the biggest issues that has been holding the domestic steel mill lead times (and prices) in check during calendar year 2014 is the amount of foreign steel coming into the United States. SMU recently reported the U.S. received 4.4 million net tons of imports during the month of October and license data is […]
It has now been five weeks (October 28th) since AK Steel became the first domestic steel mill to announce a price increase on flat rolled steel. The relatively modest $20 per ton move was, in many steel buyers’ opinions, meant to stem the decline in steel prices. At that point in time benchmark hot rolled […]
Flat rolled steel prices began slipping once again as our benchmark hot rolled average broke through the $630 mark for the first time since the middle of March. The new average is now at the lowest level for the calendar year (tied with mid-March) and is poised to set a new low point for the […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their November report on December 2nd and after the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back slightly from 59.0 to 58.7. However, this is still the third best result of the year. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the eighteenth straight month for which this […]
A member of the financial community contacted me earlier today asking about rumors of a new price increase by the domestic steel mills as we move into January 2015. He stated that another steel-related publication had quoted a service center as believing price announcements would be coming soon. First, I have not heard directly from […]
It has been a very quiet week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday here in the U.S. on Thursday. A number of service centers advised SMU that the number of inquiries had dramatically fallen off and there isn’t much need to buy steel at this time. The question isn’t so much where are prices this week […]
Last year at this time hot rolled steel prices averaged $670 per ton and were close to the peak for the year which was $680 per ton (SMU index HRC average). Lead times peaked the first week in December on all flat rolled with the exception of Galvalume. From mid-December 2013 until the middle of […]
Today’s hot rolled, ferrous scrap and iron ore futures article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Along with HRC, iron ore and BUS trading Andre also discusses the S&P 500, copper and crude […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is seeing flat rolled steel prices as drifting at this time. We saw slight adjustments in both the upper and lower end of our range on hot rolled compressing our range. Cold rolled was up by $5 per ton while galvanized was unchanged and Galvalume was lower. Market players are sitting […]
Late last week Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our galvanized range to take into consideration the growing number of base prices reaching down to the $35.00/cwt level. Our galvanized range is now $35.00/cwt-$38.00/cwt for new spot orders. Over the weekend we adjusted our hot rolled range to reflect the lower numbers we have been collecting […]
Steel Market Update is revising our galvanized and Galvalume price ranges and averages to accommodate new information that we have been gathering this week. A number of steel buyers and at least one steel mill advised us that the low end of our ranges on these two products were not representative of the deals being […]
We have been getting mixed messages from steel buyers this week regarding the status of the increase announcements and spot flat rolled steel prices. A number of buyers are reporting the mills as pushing the new numbers while others are reporting prices as remaining the same as they were one week ago. One thing that […]
Flat rolled steel prices began to stabilize this past week after having peaked in the middle of August at $675 per ton (hot rolled) and then slowly sliding to a low of $630 per ton during the week ending November 1, 2014. The SMU HRC average actually rose slightly to $635 per ton this past […]
One of the items Steel Market Update is watching closely is steel mill lead times. This is especially true after price increases have been announced. Typically, we see lead times move out (extend) after a price announcement has been made. This is due to the rush to get orders quoted prior to the increase announcement […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early November flat rolled steel market survey this week. We invited approximately 600 companies to participate in the process. Of those participating 44 percent were manufacturing companies and 44 percent were steel service centers. The balance of the respondents was comprised of 6 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel […]
AK Steel, US Steel, Nucor (verbal) and ArcelorMittal all made spot price adjustments this past week. A number of the smaller mills are holding back or have lead times out into 2015 and their order books are closed. Steel Market Update Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward Neutral meaning prices could be in transition […]
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported net earnings of $34.9 million for its fourth quarter ending August 31, 2014. Net sales increased 12 percent year over year to $1.9 billion. For the full fiscal year 2014, net earnings were 115.6 million on net sales of 7 billion. In comparison, FY 2013 net earnings were 77.3 million […]
I adjusted the SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral in recognition of the attempt by the domestic steel mills to reverse the price trend and move prices higher. A Neutral indicator means prices could move in either direction (or remain stable) over the next 30 days. I understand two mills have made very […]
There has been a flurry of activity as buyers and sellers of steel anticipate a possible price increase announcement (which came late this afternoon in the form of a $20 increase out of AK Steel). Buyers reported the domestic mills as being aggressive this week and we saw our price averages negatively impacted as prices […]
This article was written just prior to the AK Steel announcement of a $20 per ton price increase which we received after 5 PM this afternoon. Steel Market Update reported in a recent issue (SMU Oct. 23rd) recently that this is the time of the year that the domestic steel mills traditionally move to stem […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-October flat rolled steel market survey this week. Based on the results of that survey, we found lead times essentially unchanged from one week ago and basically the same as one year ago. Hot rolled averages 4.2 weeks, cold rolled 6.09 weeks, galvanized 6.11 weeks and Galvalume 6.58 weeks. […]
Steel Market Update is hearing the rumors about the potential for a new flat rolled steel price increase. The rumors are mostly coming from the service center and financial community. But, our readers, if paying attention, should not be surprised by the rumors and the real possibility that the mills will attempt to cut their […]
Based on the analysis of the responses we received so far this week on our survey coupled with channel checks we found flat rolled steel prices slipped on cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume while remaining the same on hot rolled. We found that it is too early to see if the termination of the Russian […]
Although we heard from a number of buyers mixed messages regarding the spot markets. Some buyers are seeing the market as continuing to weaken while others feel the mills have dug in their heals and prices are firm (at least in their region of the country). We have heard rumors of one, or more, mills […]
SMU was reading a blog post put up by Metal Miner this morning regarding the consolidation of the steel industry. The main premise of the guest article from James May of Steel-Insight out of Canada, was 81 percent of the hot rolled production in the United States and Canada is controlled by four companies: ArcelorMittal, […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
On Monday of this week, SMU began our early October flat rolled steel market survey. Invitations were sent to approximately 600 companies across the United States and Canada. The survey was concluded earlier today (Thursday). One of the key focus areas for the survey is to discover if there are any changes in lead times […]
We are starting to see continuous movement in flat rolled steel prices – especially on hot rolled coil which was down another $5 per ton this week. Steel Market Update is also starting to gather price points beyond the range of “slippage” and we have therefore adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower […]